For quite some time, Iowa had been holding steady for Hillary Clinton as challengers were unable to gain any traction. However, Bernie Sanders has broken through and is now leads Hillary by one percentage point which is essentially a statistical tie.

Report from Quinnipiac:

In a come-from-behind rally, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is the choice of 41 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 40 percent picking former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 12 percent backing Vice President Joseph Biden, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to results of a July 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University showing Clinton at 52 percent, with 33 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Biden.

Today, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley gets 3 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 3 percent undecided.

There is a wide gender gap among Democrats today as Sanders leads Clinton 49 – 28 percent among men, with 16 percent for Biden, while Clinton leads Sanders 49 – 35 percent among women, with 9 percent for Biden.

Sanders and Biden have a higher net favorability rating than Clinton and higher ratings for honesty and empathy. Clinton has the best scores for leadership and temperament to handle an international crisis.

“Sen. Bernie Sanders has become the Eugene McCarthy of 2016,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “He is the candidate of the Democratic left, against his own party’s bosses and their prized presidential candidate, Secretary Hillary Clinton.

“Sanders has seized the momentum by offering a message more in line with disproportionately liberal primary and caucus voters.”

I’m tempted to couch this poll until we see more Iowa numbers showing a similar shift. The data was gathered from August 27 to September 8 which is the late dead of summer when many people are still on vacations and/or getting ready for back-to-school. Still, even considering the caveats, Hillary has led handily for the past six months so to see Sanders now in a tie is quite remarkable.


  1. I think the poll sounds right. Hillary has been beat up about the email thing, so dropping from 52 to 40 seems about right. Meanwhile, Bernie was seen as a gadfly, but his increase from 33 to 41 just seems to reflect being taken more seriously. I don’t see it as his “taking” her support.

    But this looks more and more like 1968, when the expected candidate was shown to be “beatable.” The only difference is that Dems don’t have a “rock star” like Bobby Kennedy to jump into the race. So, like 1968, the vice president could swoop in and take the nomination away from Bernie, as Humphrey took it from McCarthy.

  2. Desperado Hillary declares War on Men…?

    (from the article link at the bottom on the Iowa situation): “Hillary Clinton is working to combat that reality [losing in Iowa] with pure manpower;
    she now has 78 staffers in the state and has a State Woman Leader in
    each of the 99 counties.”
    So, Hillary picks 99 Women in all 99 counties in Iowa to toot her horn — and 0 men…?

    To offset Bernie Sanders’ spontaneous huge gatherings, Hillary then stages a women’s event in Columbus, OH…hoping that all the thousands of women attending will make news. A crushing blow for her, however — aside from her entourage, only 3 women showed up … Hillaryious picture of the near-empty huge hall:

    Desperate actions by a desperate creature, fighting tooth-and-nail to grab ultimate power, will always end in ultimate doom.

    Grab your popcorn here, and enjoy the upcoming Creature Feature Show that’s Hillary Rodan Clinton.

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