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Even when I’m writing the headline, I know in my gut it’s a dumb question. There are a variety of stats and numbers indicating he’s off his massive high which came following the first Republican debate, but is this current dip anything that will have a lasting impression or a temporary lull in the action?

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Report from Politico:

Donald Trump looked tired after a grueling Republican debate. He might not be alone.

After a summer of spectacle and saturation coverage, signs are accumulating that, for the public and the media, the onset of Trump fatigue has begun.

Mentions of Trump on both television and radio have been trending downward for a month from their post-Fox debate high. His share of Twitter conversation relative to other candidates has declined in recent weeks, and his odds in political prediction markets have dipped in the hours since Wednesday night’s debate.

Radio and television conversation about Trump peaked on Aug. 7, the day after the first Republican debate, with close to 11,000 mentions of his name on each medium that day, according to data through Monday provided by media monitoring firm Critical Mention. The last time Trump reached even half as many mentions on either medium was on Aug. 26, the day after he clashed dramatically with Univision anchor Jorge Ramos at a news conference in Iowa.

Early reactions to the debate, in which Carly Fiorina emerged a winner and Trump struggled to break through, also suggest the race may be moving beyond the Trump-show phase.

On a political prediction market run by CNN and Pivit, his odds at the nomination tanked from 20 percent to 12 percent between the debate’s start and its end.

Every time the media declares the age of Trump to be officially “over,” they’re proven wrong time and time again. I think the only way that his numbers sink back to earth are if voters themselves get tired of him or, perhaps, they begin seeking more substantive policy positions than he’s willing to provide.

Don’t forget, Trump will be releasing some kind of tax proposal, probably within the next seven to ten days, which will once again ignite the conversation as other candidates will be asked to respond. As the Politico article points out, Trump is a master of public relations. I’d be willing to bet the Trump team is monitoring all these same numbers and will identify areas to take back the momentum and drive up his publicity in short order.

I think we should revisit this topic in one week and see where the numbers settle.

26 COMMENTS

  1. I think it’s deliciously ironic that Fox went into the first debate with an aggressive purpose: to destroy Donald Trump. But in doing so, it made him a superstar, and made itself look petulant and showed that Fox is neither fair nor balanced.

    CNN mostly let the candidates do the talking, and thus, Trump became just one of many on the stage. As I said elsewhere, Trump won’t stumble, he’ll just be eclipsed. But it’ll take time.

    • I suppose you think that cnn is fair and balanced, what a cluster mess they had no one in charge of the herd and all trying to out talk each other. Learned nothing about major issues

    • Spot on!

      Unfortunately the “Trump-show” will continue — to the detriment of real patriots like Rand Paul and Ben Carson — since it pockets money for the Establishment Networks who care naught for our country.

    • Goethe – you never cease to amaze me -FOX’s purpose was to prepare the GOP candidates with questions they will face when Liberal MSM start challenging them in general election debates. CNN did everything in their power to pit GOP candidates against each other instead of discussing policy and strategy. CNN made it all about Trump for ratings and to try and outdo FOX for the ratings

      Wait till CNN does the Dem’s – they will softball the hell out of a woman who should be indicted, a proclaimed Socialist, a VP who was basically invisible except for gafs, a unknown senator named Mac and I doubt if Webb will even be invited.

      • DEMOCRATIC socialist. You’re obviously attempting to plant a different label on Sanders than he put on himself. Either you’re an ignorant person who doesn’t understand what Democratic Socialism is or you’re just trying to create opposition by utilizing a label. Refer to the government forms in the Scandinavian regions to see an example of what Sanders supports.

        • Using the Democratic adjective is to blow smoke up your skirt to hide the general Marxist adjective of Socialism. he disavows Capitalism, wants Socialism, everything for free, but no fking clue how to pay for it. If it looks like a socialist, talks like a socialist, acts liks a socialist . . . it’s a socialist!

      • Sam: Good to hear from you, but you gotta be kidding. Fox spent all its time having their own people listen to themselves babble on. And nobody can seriously say they did not have an obvious agenda to knock down Trump from the very first question. An agenda is an agenda. And an agenda is not “fair and balanced.” The irony is that their attacks made him more popular, and diminished their own reputation.

        CNN downplayed Trump–rather than “making it all about Trump.” Please show me any favoritism (or hostility) they showed. The candidates stupidly played into the announced format by picking on each other, and whenever they did, they gave the opponent a chance to respond. If they had been smart, two candidates would have agreed to go back and forth–only.

        That being said, I agree that they could have used more substantive questions. But even silly questions have value. When asked what woman should be honored on the 20 (or 10) dollar bill, four showed knowledge, seven did not:

        (1) Rand Paul picked Susan B. Anthony–best answer.
        (2) Christie went with Abigail Adams–second best.
        (3) Walker Picked Clara Barton–decent, and
        (4) Rubio picked Rosa Parks, not bad.

        Meanwhile,
        Fiorina ducked the question,
        Cruz and Trump just did a “me-too,”
        Bush and Kasich picked foreigners, and
        Huckabee and Carson said they’d put their
        own relatives on our money.
        Really??

        Amazed me that nobody in the Reagan Museum had the brains to answer–Nancy Reagan, who was acknowledged as Ron’s partner and consultant.

        I don’t know why the Dems are even having a debate. They only have one viable candidate. But I still think Webb will blow the others away, at the debate.

        • CNN, not FOX, made it all about Trump as more than half the “he said – she said” was about Trump;. And all that was to create conflict in the GOP. FOX wanted to establish if Trump was going to be a GOP or Independent and give him a taste of what he would face if if pitted against Die Hündin in a ?debate?

          Fiona didn’t duck the question – she’s a business person and like most GOPers doesn’t give a fk about PC BS and wasting money. I was working for HP during her tenure.

          Dumb Dems don’t even realize that Webb would get moderate Dem, Independents, even some RINO’s, plus other Dem’s would vote for him versus a GOP.

          • Sam, the whole PURPOSE of the debate was to have the candidates compare themselves to others, to find out why they think they should be the candidate. And the essence of debate SHOULD BE “conflict,” right?? (Not the love fest Fox had with all the candidates except Trump.)

            Sam, I know you listen with your heart, and since you hate CNN, you refuse to give them any credit, but I just went back to the transcript to see what questions they actually asked–that were not prompted by the candidates. These were the issues they asked about:

            1) Introduce yourself
            2) Is TEMPERAMENT important in a president?
            3) Do we need a government OUTSIDER?
            4) Isn’t government EXPERIENCE valuable?
            5) How would you deal with PUTIN?
            6) What would you do about IRAN?
            7) How should we handle CHINA?
            8) What should we do about SYRIA?
            9) What do you think about GAY MARRIAGE and the Kentucky clerk?
            10) What should we do about PLANNED PARENTHOOD?
            11) What about illegal IMMIGRATION and birthright citizenship?
            12) How can we create more JOBS?
            13) How about your TAX plans?
            14) What about the minimum WAGE?
            15) Who’d be better at beating HILLARY?
            16) How important is FOREIGN POLICY?
            17) Is the BUSH NAME a problem?
            18) Who are the policy ADVISERS you’d rely on?
            19) What would you do if America is ATTACKED?
            20) What would you do about ISIS?
            21) Was the choice of JOHN ROBERTS a mistake?
            22) What about legalizing MARIJUANA?
            23) Should a family turn in an INSANE relative with a GUN?
            24) Should rich people be paid SOCIAL SECURITY?
            25) What are your views on CLIMATE CHANGE?
            26) What do you think about mandatory VACCINATION?
            27) How will you CHANGE foreign policy in your term?
            28) Closing statements

            And, yes, TWO light questions:
            1) What woman would you put on the $10 bill?
            2) What would your Secret Service code name be?

            TWENTY-EIGHT substantive questions. If you’re left with the impression that the candidates didn’t say anything, it’s not CNN’s fault!

            Don’t you think??

            • Sam, I DID watch both debates, and I got the written transcripts, too. I can’t believe I went to all the trouble to list the actual questions that were asked by CNN, and you’re still trying to say Fox did a better job.

              CNN asked substantive issue questions. The only reason there were personality attacks was from the candidates, themselves. (And it should be noted that the attacks on several candidates came from Fox, not the candidates, in the earlier debate.

              While CNN asked about ISIS, Iran, Putin, China, Syria, Social Security, taxes, jobs, wages, and Planned Parenthood, and more, Fox asked Trump–(1) are you going to support the eventual candidate, (2) you’re not willing to take the pledge? (3) You’ve said a lot of bad things about women (and several stabs during his answer) (4) What about saying you’d like to see an Apprentice “on her knees”? (5) What about your immigration “rapist, murderer” quote? (6) What evidence do you have of that? (6) You once said you thought Canadian health care was good, (7) What about your bankruptcies? (8) You used to be prochoice, (9) Bush called you a “clown and buffoon.” Those were not coming from the candidates. Those were just some of the questions directly from Fox.

              Are you sure you were watching the debates? If it had an orange muscle car with a flag on top, you were actually watching Dukes of Hazzard.

            • Goethe, i watched all four debates and the main ones multiple times and you listed the substance part but not the preface of “he said” . . . “please respond” to start each pissing contest. Watch CNN again and listen to moderators. The candidates then bitched out the other candidate rather than focus on the substance.

            • You mean “he said, please respond” like these (just some from the Fox debate)?

              Sen Cruz. . .Sen Paul. . .said you do NOTHING to grow the party

              Mr. Trump. . .Gov Bush has called [your immigration] remarks “extremely UGLY”

              Gov. Kasich, I know you don’t like to talk about Donald Trump—BUT—

              Sen Rubio. . .is it as SIMPLE as [Trump’s comment that] our leaders are stupid?

              Gov Christie. . .you’ve said that Sen Paul’s opposition to NSA [has made he US] WEAKER

              Sen Rubio, why is Gov Bush WRONG on Common Core?

              Gov Christie. . .Gov Huckabee says he can save Social Security. . .is he LYING?

              Gov Huckabee. . .explain to Gov Christie how that would work

              Gov Huckabee. . .what do you THINK about what Sen Paul just said?

              Gov Bush. . .you called Mr. Trump a CLOWN, a buffoon, something else that can’t be repeated on television

              Gov Christie, what do you THINK of [Sen Paul’s] answer?

              It’s a fact that CNN mostly kept its nose out of the debate and let the candidates speak. I think Nate gave us the numbers on that. And the above shows that MOST of Fox’s questions were “he said, please respond”–more than CNN. And I don’t remember CNN asking if other candidates were “simple,” “wrong,” or worse, “lying.”

              And again, CNN asked more substantive questions, It was the candidates that did the pissing contest, rather than answer those questions.

            • Goethe – again you forgot that Jake Tapper drove almost everyone of those questions – on purpose – this is why i quit responding to comments,. aint worth the fking time it takes

            • OBJECTIVE observers agree that Fox did a slanted hatchet job on Trump, and CNN mostly got out of the way–which is why they said “thank you (gov, sen, mr, or ms) 106 times.

              But have it your way, since you offer no proof of your claims–Fox IS, in fact, the voice of God; the GOP candidates ARE wrong, simpletons, and/or liars; and the moon landing was staged in the Arizona desert. Don’t let the facts get in the way.

  2. Trump is going down… his last performance was weak…so it must be over for him. Right?

    But what if Trump throws another “politically incorrect” bombshell — like he did that all illegal aliens (Mexicans) must be deported for they are in the millions here illegally, and are sucking our nation dry (which resonated with all Real Americans and thus, made him a front-runner by far).

    If Trump sees his fortunes going down, don’t be surprised if he reverses them and guarantees his win by stating what all Real Americans want: “As President, I’ll make sure that Obama shows his Genuine Birth Certificate — not the copy of the one posted on line by the White House, which experts showed it to be a 100% fake — and if failing to provide one, I’ll do my best to put Barack Obama in jail for life for usurping the US Presidency. This act will save a lot of time in restoring our nation — for all of Obama’s selections in Supreme Court Judges, Executive Orders and any and all laws such as Obamacare, etc., he made during his usurpation, will become Null and Void instantly!”

    No US politician who cares only about his career will do the right thing — Trump is not a politician, but a successful egomaniac who considers all “big shots” beneath him.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trumps-history-raising-birther-questions-president-obama/story?id=33861832

  3. The media is trying desperately to take down Trump but it is not working AT ALL. He is going to win, and when he does, he will not be a puppet for ANY special interest groups. SO AWESOME !!!!!

  4. Right after the Surveyusa indepth poll came out which showed Trump could win, the republican establishment launched an unprecedented, coordinated sleazy attack worse than the dems. Well, we are standing by Trump. The party can either get their acts together and stick to the issues, or the party is going down, because Trump supporters will not tolerate a party declaring war on a third of their voters. So, you decide. Trump has new ideas which do not sit well with dogmatic republicans. Life is dynamic and new problems require new solutions. Merely offering tax cuts as a remedy for every problem this nation has is gutting this nation and not a remedy. The best of ideas go bad when taken to extreme. Trump has opened freedom of speech back up in the USA, and lifted the morale of so many to fight again, but establishment republicans are trying their best to trash the party, and inducing Trump to as well. IT NEEDS TO STOP.

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