The latest PPP poll out of New Hampshire shows some serious movement in the presidential race over the past month. In short summary, Donald Trump is blowing away the Republican field in the Granite State and Bernie Sanders is easily topping Hillary Clinton.
Report from Public Policy Polling:
PPP’s new New Hampshire poll finds Donald Trump in the strongest position of any poll we’ve done anywhere since he entered the race. Trump laps the Republican field with 35% to 11% for John Kasich, 10% for Carly Fiorina, 7% each for Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, 6% for Ben Carson, 4% each for Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, and 3% for Rand Paul. Candidates falling outside the top ten in the state are Rick Perry at 2%, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal all at less than 1%. Everyone does have at least one supporter on this poll.
To give an idea of how fundamentally the contest has shifted over the last four months none of Trump, Kasich, and Fiorina weren’t even included in the horse race question when we last polled the state in April. The candidate who’s made the most cataclysmic drop is Walker- he’s gone from leading at 24% all the way down to 7% in this newest poll.
On the Republican side, here are the current standings in New Hampshire:
35% – Trump
11% – Kasich
10% – Fiorina
7% – Bush, Walker (tied)
6% – Carson
4% – Christie, Cruz, Rubio (tied)
3% – Paul
2% – Perry
The rest are hovering below two percent. The biggest takeaway, aside from Trump, is how poorly Rand Paul is doing in New Hampshire at this point. In the span of six to eight months, he’s gone from one of the top contenders into a floundering campaign unable to gain any traction on any issue. The other big news is Kasich rising quickly after the first debate as well as Fiorina. New Hampshire loves outsiders, however, so Trump wins the day.
On the Democratic side, here is the breakdown:
42% – Sanders
35% – Clinton
6% – Webb
4% – O’Malley
2% – Chafee
Sanders, just like Trump, is riding the maverick wave so loved by the citizens in New Hampshire. They dislike any establishment candidates and tend to gravitate toward the outsiders. The notable exception is 2008 where Hillary Clinton lost Iowa, but went on to defeat Barack Obama in New Hampshire. This time around, Sanders is doing quite well but the question is whether he can sustain his lead once the Democrats start debating in October.