As we get closer to Election Day, it’s becoming more and more likely that Republicans will control the upper chamber for the next session. Polls differ on just how strong a GOP majority might be, anywhere from 1 seat to 5 seats, but the momentum is now following the GOP with Democrats playing defense in several key races.

Report from Politico:

Five fresh Fox News polls released Wednesday night show Republicans leading in key races for the GOP to win control of the Senate in next month’s midterm elections.

The first live-caller, nonpartisan poll of the general election in Alaska has GOP challenger Dan Sullivan slightly ahead of Sen. Mark Begich by 4 points, 44 percent to 40 percent.

In Kansas, Fox finds Republican Sen. Pat Roberts up 5 points over independent Greg Orman, 44 percent to 39 percent, with 3 percent supporting a Libertarian.

Here’s a breakdown of the five races cited in this piece:

Alaska: Sullivan (R Pickup) +4
Kansas: Roberts (R Hold) +5
Arkansas: Cotton (R Pickup) +7
Colorado: Gardner (R Pickup) +6
Kentucky: McConnell (R Hold) +4

Granted being up 4 or 5 points can vary drastically up to Election Day. At this point in this snapshot, however, the Senate appears ready to change hands if the swing states break for the GOP.

One outlier may be the Senate race in South Dakota which had previously looked like a fairly easy Republican win. At this point, the race remains a toss-up. Report from the Fiscal Times:

The strange three-way Senate race in South Dakota heated up this week with a new poll showing the GOP nominee’s lead shrinking — and with the revelation that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will commit $1 million to the race, largely to fund ads attacking him.

The Republican frontrunner, former Governor Mike Rounds, is competing with Democrat Rick Weiland and the state’s former Republican Senator, Larry Pressler, who now identifies as an Independent. Rounds has led for most of the cycle, and recent polls had shown the race tightening only slightly, with Pressler gaining ground.

On Wednesday, though, a new poll released by SurveyUSA showed that support for Rounds had fallen dramatically, while Pressler’s had jumped. The survey, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points, gave Rounds 35 percent of the vote, Pressler 32 percent, and Weiland 28 percent. The Senate seat will go to the person with the most votes, even if that candidate doesn’t secure an outright majority, so it is quite possible that the winner will claim victory with only little more than a third of votes cast.

As mentioned, the South Dakota race goes to the most votes so a candidate can win the seat with less than fifty percent support. This race appears wide open due to the large amount of support for each of the three candidates.

10 COMMENTS

  1. Zzzzzzzz. . .

    This is a real “dog bites man” story. People have been saying this for over a year, and I’ve never heard anybody say otherwise. These are all senators who were elected in the 2008 Obama “irrational exuberance,” when Dems won seats where they had no reasonable right to win. People wanted Obama to have people to help him bring hope and change, but it didn’t happen, so these people are going to pay the price.

    Other than Colorado, all of the states you note are deep red. Nate Silver gives the GOP a 95% chance of winning Kansas, 80% chance of winning Kentucky, 60% chance of winning Arkansas, but calls Alaska 50-50, and actually calls Colorado 60% chance for Udall. But even he is calling for a 51-49 GOP majority.

    That’s gonna happen. BUT remember, there was a reaction in 2010, when the GOP won seats it shouldn’t have won. So, unless the GOP can find a candidate who can arouse the kind of passion Obama did, the senate will go the other way in 2016.

      • Nate and Geothe — both of you are not considering that the NRA (the strongest ally the American people have to preserve the 2nd Amnd and thus the US Constitution) is poised to launch devastating ads against gun-grabbing Dems just in time for the November elections.

        When these ads hit the targeted Democrooks, they’ll have no chance winning — since educated Americans are fully aware that The Second Amendment is the only one that guarantees all of the other amendments!

        Therefore, I predict a 5+ victory in Senate.

        Noah Webster, 1787:

        “Before a standing army can rule, the
        people must be disarmed; as they are in almost every kingdom of Europe.
        The supreme power in America cannot enforce unjust laws by the sword;
        because the whole body of the people are armed, and constitute a force
        superior to any bands of regular troops that can be, on any pretense,
        raised in the United States.”

        http://theblacksphere.net/2013/03/the-second-amendment-is-the-only-one-that-guarantees-all-of-the-other-amendments/

        • Surf: Both Nate and I said the GOP will take the senate. You’re not disagreeing with us.

          Except that you’re predicting a 55-45 GOP senate? Can I get a piece of that action? I’d mortgage the house against that bet.

  2. The R.N.C. establishment won all the primaries from any Tea Party challenges and feel they can simply use the same strategy they used in 2012. “Run on the Presidents unfavorable numbers” and don’t say squat as to what you will do when you win. Has anyone else noticed the establishment has kept their yaps shut about immigration reform among other topics lately? From what is projected they feel they don’t even need to worry about carrying any specific interest group.

  3. As the lone dissenter here, I believe the Democrats will retain control of the
    senate. I am a reader and admirer of Nate Silver’s political savy but this year I see some things in a different light. I agree that Colorado will keep Udall as Senator. In Kentucky, Grimes will be victorious (or close enough to hurt), Orman, an independent, will be the victor in Kansas. He says he will caucus with whichever party is in control of the Senate. It appears to me that the
    Republican Party is quickly trying to push the Tea Party into a forgotten corner. If so, will their vote remain Republican? Wisconsin and Texas elections may have different outcomes than predicted. The Supreme Court struck down Wisconsin’s photo ID law which previously prevented approximately 300,000-plus registered voters lacking a photo ID from voting. A Texas Judge, Nelva Gonzales Ramo, ruled state’s voter ID law “creates an unconstitutional burden on the right to vote, has an impermissible discriminatory effect against Hispanics and African-Americans, and was imposed with an unconstitutional discriminatory purpose on about 600,000 Texas voters”. Texas Attorney General, Gregg Abbott, said he would immediately appeal. Abbott is presently running for the Texas governor’s office. Will these 600,000 voters remember his deed?

      • Anyway, Tess, I have been hearing Democrats claim that they’re going to hold the senate. It’s possible, of course, but unlikely.

        My real concern is that Democrats will believe their own optimism, and if/when they lose, there will be the same horrible bitterness that Dems felt in 2004, after polls started to show a possible Kerry win near the end of that campaign.

  4. It seems to me that we have practically no political signs along the roads and very few political commercials on television here in Virginia compared to previous years.

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