As we get closer to Election Day, it’s becoming more and more likely that Republicans will control the upper chamber for the next session. Polls differ on just how strong a GOP majority might be, anywhere from 1 seat to 5 seats, but the momentum is now following the GOP with Democrats playing defense in several key races.
Report from Politico:
Five fresh Fox News polls released Wednesday night show Republicans leading in key races for the GOP to win control of the Senate in next month’s midterm elections.
The first live-caller, nonpartisan poll of the general election in Alaska has GOP challenger Dan Sullivan slightly ahead of Sen. Mark Begich by 4 points, 44 percent to 40 percent.
In Kansas, Fox finds Republican Sen. Pat Roberts up 5 points over independent Greg Orman, 44 percent to 39 percent, with 3 percent supporting a Libertarian.
Here’s a breakdown of the five races cited in this piece:
Alaska: Sullivan (R Pickup) +4
Kansas: Roberts (R Hold) +5
Arkansas: Cotton (R Pickup) +7
Colorado: Gardner (R Pickup) +6
Kentucky: McConnell (R Hold) +4
Granted being up 4 or 5 points can vary drastically up to Election Day. At this point in this snapshot, however, the Senate appears ready to change hands if the swing states break for the GOP.
One outlier may be the Senate race in South Dakota which had previously looked like a fairly easy Republican win. At this point, the race remains a toss-up. Report from the Fiscal Times:
The strange three-way Senate race in South Dakota heated up this week with a new poll showing the GOP nominee’s lead shrinking — and with the revelation that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will commit $1 million to the race, largely to fund ads attacking him.
The Republican frontrunner, former Governor Mike Rounds, is competing with Democrat Rick Weiland and the state’s former Republican Senator, Larry Pressler, who now identifies as an Independent. Rounds has led for most of the cycle, and recent polls had shown the race tightening only slightly, with Pressler gaining ground.
On Wednesday, though, a new poll released by SurveyUSA showed that support for Rounds had fallen dramatically, while Pressler’s had jumped. The survey, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points, gave Rounds 35 percent of the vote, Pressler 32 percent, and Weiland 28 percent. The Senate seat will go to the person with the most votes, even if that candidate doesn’t secure an outright majority, so it is quite possible that the winner will claim victory with only little more than a third of votes cast.
As mentioned, the South Dakota race goes to the most votes so a candidate can win the seat with less than fifty percent support. This race appears wide open due to the large amount of support for each of the three candidates.