Many sources around former Florida Governor Jeb Bush indicate there is a “30 percent chance” he launches a presidential bid in 2016. Apparently his decision hinges on how well Chris Christie plays in Republican circles outside the northeast.


Report from Politico:

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is getting all the attention as the flavor of the month for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. But there is growing chatter in elite New York financial circles that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is giving more serious consideration to getting in the race, especially if it appears at any point that Christie is not drawing big national appeal beyond the northeast.

Several top GOP sources on Wall Street and in Washington said this week that Bush has moved from almost certainly staying out of the 2016 race to a “30 percent chance” of getting in. Several sources mentioned the precise 30 percent odds as up from closer to zero just a few months ago.

These sources said Bush is reconsidering as the Republican Party seeks to recover from political damage done to its brand by the recent government shutdown, which was engineered by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and the tea party wing of the GOP. A spokeswoman for Bush declined to comment on the Wall Street chatter and pointed to recent comments from Bush. Asked about a run at an event in Wisconsin, the former governor said he would make a decision next year.

Potentially this could setup a battle for establishment support between Jeb Bush and Chris Christie. On the other end, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz will be battling for Tea Party support. The winners of those division titles head to the championship hoping to become the nominee. Seems simple enough, especially since nothing unexpected ever happens in politics.

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Nate Ashworth is the Founder and Senior Editor of Election Central. He's been blogging elections and politics for almost a decade. He started covering the 2008 Presidential Election which turned into a full-time political blog in 2012 and 2016.

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