Last week, we looked at a Marist poll showing Democrat Josh Turek eight points ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa and asked the obvious question: after the state’s spectacular polling miss in 2024, should anyone believe it?
There were good reasons to be cautious. Marist surveyed registered voters rather than likely voters, its eight-point Democratic margin was much larger than most other polls, and Iowa voters had just watched one of the most famous state polls in the country miss Donald Trump’s 2024 victory by roughly 16 points.
So we said the best thing to do was wait for more polling. Now we have it.
Another Likely-Voter Poll Has Turek Ahead
A new InsiderAdvantage survey conducted Sept. 22-23 among 1,200 likely Iowa voters found Turek narrowly ahead of Hinson. The result is well within the poll’s reported margin of error, so it should be read as a close race rather than a meaningful one-point Democratic lead.
InsiderAdvantage (Sept. 22-23, 1,200 likely voters)
- Josh Turek (D): 47%
- Ashley Hinson (R): 46%
That matters because one of the biggest questions about Marist was its use of registered voters. InsiderAdvantage used a likely-voter sample and still found Turek slightly ahead. RealClearPolling now lists its Iowa Senate average at roughly Turek 45.0% to Hinson 44.5%, essentially a tied race. RealClearPolling’s current Iowa average includes the latest InsiderAdvantage result.
Big Data Poll Points the Same Way
There is also another new survey from Big Data Poll that has Turek ahead by a somewhat larger margin.
Big Data Poll (Sept. 23-26, likely voters)
- Josh Turek (D): 46.5%
- Ashley Hinson (R): 42.0%
- Other: 5.0%
That is a 4.5-point Turek lead. We have not located the full original release or crosstabs, including the sample size and detailed methodology, so this one deserves an extra note of caution. But it is another data point pointing in the same general direction.
The September Polling Is All Over the Map
None of this means Marist’s eight-point margin has suddenly been validated. In fact, the full September polling picture is still messy. Some polls have Hinson ahead, some have Turek ahead and one had the race tied.
That is not a clean trend line. It is a collection of polls ranging from Hinson +5 to Turek +8. But the bigger takeaway is increasingly difficult to miss: Iowa is polling like a genuinely competitive Senate race.
That’s the Part Republicans Should Be Watching
Trump carried Iowa by more than 13 points in 2024. A race that consistently polls within a few points of even is therefore notable on its own, regardless of whether Marist’s eight-point margin proves accurate.
There is also some broader evidence that the political environment in Iowa has become more difficult for Republicans. Marist found Trump underwater on job approval in the state, Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot and Democrat Rob Sand leading in the governor’s race. At the same time, Republican candidates in Iowa have been pressing the administration over high diesel prices and the Iran war as economic concerns become a larger part of the midterm campaign. Reuters recently reported on Hinson’s break with Trump over the war and the political pressure created by rising fuel costs.
That still doesn’t tell us who will win in November. InsiderAdvantage’s one-point result is essentially a tie, Big Data’s full methodology remains unclear, and several recent polls still have Hinson ahead.
But the question we asked last week has a clearer answer now than it did then. Marist’s eight-point Democratic lead may still be too large, but the idea that Iowa is competitive no longer rests on one surprising poll.
More polls have arrived, and the race still looks close.