Senator Ted Cruz is moving with the energy of someone who wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. He is picking high-profile fights, staking out ideological ground, building media reach, and courting donors who still see him as one of the party’s most experienced operators. He is doing almost everything a serious contender does when laying the foundation for a national run.
But according to new reporting from Axios, the political ground underneath him may not be as firm as the activity suggests. The Republican Party that Cruz once understood so well is not the same party he is trying to win over in the next cycle. The frontrunner he faces is stronger than the one he faced in 2016. And the voters he needs have moved in a direction that does not naturally line up with the message he is trying to sell.
A Preview of a Campaign
Axios reports that Cruz is “laying the groundwork” for a 2028 bid and is doing so by turning his feud with Tucker Carlson into a defining contrast. He has been explicit about it. In recent speeches and interviews, Cruz has accused Carlson of “going bat crap crazy” on foreign policy. He also blasted Carlson’s decision to interview Nick Fuentes and called Fuentes “a little goose stepping Nazi.”
The pattern is obvious. Cruz is positioning himself as a traditional Republican foreign policy hawk at a moment when the party’s dominant energy runs in the opposite direction. He is leaning heavily on national security themes and trying to recapture the image he built years ago as a forceful, orthodox conservative.
Axios also notes that Cruz has built out much of the infrastructure that usually accompanies a presidential bid. He has a national syndicated radio presence. He hosts donor retreats. He is expanding his outreach to younger conservatives. Everything about his schedule looks like someone preparing to launch a campaign.
The Party Has Shifted Without Him
The challenge is that the primary electorate is not where Cruz is trying to lead it. Axios describes the problem clearly. The Republican grassroots has moved away from the George W. Bush era toward a more nationalist, less interventionist worldview. It is a worldview that Carlson champions and one that Vice President JD Vance reflects with even greater political polish.
This matters because Vance is already described by Axios as the “big favorite” for the 2028 nomination. The base sees him as the natural heir to the Trump era. Vance’s instincts on foreign policy and cultural issues closely match what Republican primary voters reward today.
Cruz, by contrast, is arguing for a return to a traditional foreign policy that many Republican voters have rejected. Instead of meeting voters where they are, he is attempting to pull them back to where they used to be.
The Donor Problem
Axios also reports that the donor world is not lining up behind Cruz in the way he might hope. Major Republican funders are cautious about crossing the Trump White House by getting behind anyone other than Vance. They do not want to anger the president. They also see Vance as someone who already has the inside track.
Cruz is a proven fundraiser. He built his name on small-dollar energy and grassroots enthusiasm. But in a modern presidential primary, early donor signals send powerful messages. If the money class leans toward Vance, that alone creates a structural advantage that is difficult for Cruz to erase.
Past Baggage and a Changed Landscape
Cruz enters this race with a mixed brand inside the party. He is well known, but not always well liked. His 2016 campaign was hard-fought and memorable, but he also accumulated a long list of rivals and critics. Some of those divisions faded during the Trump years, but others never fully healed.
Republican voters today do not behave like the voters of 2016. They are more populist, more skeptical of foreign intervention, more focused on cultural battles, and more willing to reward outsiders over long-standing senators. Cruz once thrived as the disruptive conservative underdog. Today, he runs the risk of looking like a figure from an earlier era.
Has everyone forgotten the DeSantis debacle of 2024? Cruz would be running a similar playbook, hoping, without evidence, that the GOP is willing to move past the Trump brand of Republican politics.
Why Cruz’s Odds Look Long
The frontrunner in Vance is strong. The energy of the base aligns with the frontrunner. The donors are cautious about breaking from the frontrunner. And the ideological lane Cruz wants to revive may be too narrow in the current moment.
Cruz could still try to reshape the narrative. He could get early debate moments. He could find ways to separate himself from Vance without alienating Trump loyalists. He could rediscover the ability he once had to electrify conservative crowds.
But unless the party shifts again, or unless Vance stumbles dramatically and unexpectedly, Cruz appears to be preparing for a race that is already leaning heavily against him.
The Bottom Line
Ted Cruz is laying a foundation. His moves are real. His ambitions are obvious. Yet the ground he is building on is not as solid as it may look on paper. The Republican Party has changed. The voters have changed. And the competitor he will face in 2028 starts in a far stronger position than Cruz can claim.
Beyond the politics, Cruz has a reputation for being a strong Senator but somewhat disliked, even among some of his own colleagues.
For now, Cruz is doing everything a presidential hopeful is supposed to do. Whether any of it will matter is a very different question.