A new national poll shows Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom running neck and neck in an early look at the 2028 presidential race. The Emerson College survey released this week found both men tied at 44 percent support in a hypothetical head-to-head contest, with 12 percent of voters still undecided.
That result follows Emerson’s July poll, when Vance edged ahead with 45 percent compared to 42 percent for Newsom. The shift suggests the race remains fluid, but it also shows Vance holding steady even as Democrats rally behind Newsom as a possible standard-bearer of their 2028 rebrand.
Poll highlights
- Emerson national poll (August 2025)
- Vance: 44%
- Newsom: 44%
- Undecided: 12%
- Emerson national poll (July 2025)
- Vance: 45%
- Newsom: 42%
- Undecided: 13%
The 12 percent of voters who remain undecided are probably enjoying a fun Labor Day weekend unconcerned with politics. Historically, however, late deciders tend to move toward the candidate who connects on issues like the economy, immigration, and public safety. That may give Vance an advantage, since his message has been aimed squarely at middle America, where Democrats are hemorrhaging support with no end in sight.
Newsom may enjoy praise from coastal elites and the staunch anti-Trump crowd, but his appeal doesn’t travel far beyond that bubble. On the national stage, he carries the image of a left-wing governor whose state is mired in high taxes, crime, and population exodus. He can try to rebrand himself, but the record he brings from California speaks for itself.