Looking ahead to the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday brings a lot of unease in the polling world.
There are numbers all over the map showing former President Donald Trump and Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley tied to a mid-double-digit lead for Trump. Where does the answer lie? Probably somewhere in the middle.
New Hampshire is more unique than Iowa because it runs a statewide traditional primary. Voting opens in the morning and participants have all day to visit their local polling location and cast a ballot. It’s easier to participate in than a caucus and is more forgiving if you can’t show up at a specific time and wait for an hour or two.
New Hampshire also features somewhat of an open primary system with generous rules allowing party identification changes up to the day before the election takes place. New Hampshire also allows “unaffiliated” voters to vote in the primary of their choosing. Furthermore, the Democratic contest is meaningless so some Democrats are crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary, ostensibly voting for Haley to spite Trump.
With all that said, let’s look at the latest American Research Group (ARG) poll showing a 40-40 tie between Trump and Haley, according to The Hill:
GOP rivals former President Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are tied in New Hampshire, new polling shows, as the primary race heads into the Granite State.
The survey from American Research Group Inc., released Tuesday, puts Trump and Haley at 40 percent each among the state’s likely Republican primary voters.
Back in December, Trump was at 33 percent, while Haley scored 29 percent. Both candidates had gained support by the start of January, when the poll had Trump at 37 percent and Haley at 33 percent.
At face value, it seems like a winner for Haley and some kind of alarm bells for Trump.
However, the ARG numbers have been some of the least kind to Trump in recent months, and showing this close of a race appears to be quite an outlier. According to the RCP average and our data, Trump is still ahead by double-digits when polls are averaged.
The ARG poll was also conducted among a good portion of undeclared voters:
The American Research Group Inc. poll was conducted with 600 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire — including both Republicans and undeclared voters — from Jan. 12-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. [Emphasis added]
Among the undeclared group, Haley is pulling 51% support when the data is broken down by party identification, enough to put her in contention for a tie:
In this regard, it’s dubious to claim the poll is a valid snapshot of Republican primary voters since it’s not. If the electorate voting on Tuesday leans more Republican, Trump will win New Hampshire walking away. If, however, more “undeclared” voters cast a ballot along with some Democrats, then the results will be closer.
With Chris Christie gone from the race and Ron DeSantis seemingly little more than a single-digit blurb in the state, it’s as close to a two-person race as we’re going to see for a while.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, they see a tighter snapshot giving Trump a 13-point lead on average factoring in the ARG poll. It’s healthy but not insurmountable given the open-ended possibilities with cross-over voting in the Granite State.
What it comes to do here is that Haley is relying on the votes of Democrats and undeclared voters to try and win a Republican primary. A victory in New Hampshire, fueled by voters outside the GOP grassroots, will not be viewed as anything other than it is. A chance for Democrats and moderates to try and sway the primary toward a Mitt Romney-like nominee and dunk on Trump.
Other recent polls show a much different race that is anything but tied:
2024 NH Republican Primary (Shift since 1/7):
Trump 50% (+4)
Haley 34% (+8)
DeSantis 5% (-3)
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Undecided: 6% (+2)Suffolk/USA Today (A-) | 1/15-16 | 500 LV https://t.co/DSog04Jy2t pic.twitter.com/t3xsZ6f4Ci
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 17, 2024
