If there was a price to be paid by former President Donald Trump for skipping all four RNC-sponsored debates, it has yet to be seen.
In the most recent NBC News/Des Moines Register poll of Iowa caucus voters, Trump has now passed 50% support as his vote share continues to increase. There were many times when Trump’s chances in Iowa were predicted to be “fading” but nothing has made a dent. Not endorsements, not fights with the governor, nothing.
Instead, quite the opposite, as NBC News reports:
Former President Donald Trump has expanded his lead over his GOP rivals with five weeks until the first Republican presidential nominating contest, now earning 51% first-choice support from likely Iowa caucusgoers, according to the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll.
Trump’s lead — the largest recorded so close to a competitive Republican caucus in this Iowa poll’s history — is fueled by majorities of evangelical and first-time likely caucusgoers, as well as by nearly three-quarters of Republicans who believe Trump can defeat President Joe Biden next year despite the legal challenges the former president faces.
What’s more, the poll finds the former president enjoying more enthusiasm and commitment from his supporters than his rivals do ahead of the Jan. 15 contest in Iowa.
He has growing support and more enthusiasm than his rivals, yet everyone still pretends that Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley have a serious chance in Iowa. It’s not a slight against either candidate, but Trump’s decision to seek the White House in 2024 should’ve been enough to clear the field simply due to the fool’s errand of trying to separate the MAGA base from their preferred choice.
Here’s the full chart with a comparison between now and October:
DeSantis climbed three points while Haley remained the same. Trump climbed an astonishing 7 points which means as the field shrinks, support is consolidating around the leader of the pack.
Where do you go from here if you’re DeSantis? At this point, he might as well stay in the race and see what happens. However, if Trump were to win Iowa by double-digits, this primary is over.
Wait, what about New Hampshire? Couldn’t the Granite State upend the status quo and dump Trump even if he wins Iowa? That could happen, but it’s unlikely. Iowa was tougher for Trump in 2016 than just about any other state. If he wins there decisively, New Hampshire will fall in line along with the rest of the early states which will end this fight in February.
Still, polls are just polls, voters have the final say.
