With President Biden’s document scandal becoming more toxic by the day, one has to ask why he’s not getting the same full-throated support that he’s gotten during previous challenges to his presidency.
A growing cadre of Democratic Party insiders, strategists, and advisors seem to be cooling on the President at just about the time he’s set to launch into a 2024 re-election campaign. More and more voices seem to be throwing up yellow lights at another Biden campaign while they stop just shy of advising him to defer to someone else. For example, former Clinton advisor David Gergen said recently that Biden’s going to get “creamed” over the document scandal, a head-turning take for a staunch Democratic insider.
While Biden was ridin’ high immediately after the midterms, the political environment has since changed and reset, if you will, back to the pre-midterm reality for the President:
The steady drip of new document news is already sapping the enthusiasm that surrounded Biden after the Democrats survived the midterm elections, when the share of the party’s voters who thought he could win reelection jumped 11 points to 71%. While the story could be largely resolved by the time 2024 rolls around, it is presently unfolding against the backdrop of Biden’s reelection decision.
Rank-and-file Democrats have been telling pollsters they would prefer a different nominee than Biden for months. During the midterm elections, two-thirds of all voters said they didn’t want him to run for reelection.
But some Democrats are coalescing around Biden. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), the leading Democrat who has appeared to be making moves consistent with a national campaign, has said he is not running. The main alternatives inside the administration are Vice President Kamala Harris, whose poll numbers have been a persistent problem, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who has had struggles of his own.
All this sets Biden up well to be the first octogenarian major party presidential nominee, itself likely to become a problem in the campaign, especially if the Republican standard-bearer is someone other than, and younger than, Trump.
Newsom has been running a shadow campaign for a year now as he battles with popular Republicans like Gov. Ron DeSantis. Newsom went even as far as to run what amounted to campaign ads in Florida highlighting his “freedom-centered” credentials on abortion rights. Then, suddenly, Newsom backed off and said he wasn’t pursuing the 2024 Democratic nomination though his shadow campaign still remains in effect.
Former Obama administration advisor David Axelrod recently nudged Biden to consider the ongoing weight of the job in relation to his age:
David Axelrod, the former Obama adviser who remains an influential Democratic establishment figure, signaled as much last year. “The presidency is a monstrously taxing job, and the stark reality is the president would be closer to 90 than 80 at the end of a second term and that would be a major issue,” he said.
As noted above, Democratic primary voters continue to say they prefer someone else other than Joe Biden in 2024. That doesn’t mean they’ll get it but it certainly speaks to the appetite for someone new and more, well, inspiring as the head of the party.
If the bulk of the Democratic Party coupled with the media (one and the same) decide to stand behind Joe Biden and fend off attacks, he’ll probably be able to proceed with his re-election launch. However, if the tides continue souring and Biden starts hearing internal advice to think about stepping back from a second campaign, all bets are off on Biden 2024.
