For most of this election cycle, Democrats had accepted that control of the House of Representatives was likely to change hands. That is, after all, the historical norm for the party in power to lose seats as voters take their frustrations out against the leader in the White House.
The one abiding hope Democrats had was a belief that they could hold the Senate as a backstop. During the primary season in spring and early summer, it was believed that Republicans had nominated bad candidates that were too extreme or too Trumpy to win in November. Democrats even help the process by secretly funding and backing Republicans they thought would be easier to beat in the general.
Less than two weeks from Election Day, however, the narrative has drastically changed. Day by day, it’s looking more and more likely that Republicans will end up flipping any of a handful of razor-thin Senate seats and turn the upper chamber red as well. Here’s a short rundown across the country of several states that once appeared “safe” for Democrats.
Arizona – Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D)*
Arizona was sort of “ground zero” for the belief that Republicans nominating Kari Lake as their gubernatorial candidate and Blake Masters for Senate, both Trump-endorsed and full-throated Trump supporters, was a slate too extreme to win the general. As of today, Lake is polling sometimes double-digits ahead of her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs, and Masters has narrowed the gap down to a statistical tie with incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly.
The race has shifted so much that it was moved days ago from “lean Democrat” to the “toss up” category by Cook and Politico:
Blake Masters can claim little credit for Republicans’ Arizona comeback — but he is reaping the benefits, propelling him back into contention for a key Senate seat some in the GOP once wrote off.
Voters’ dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s job performance and a strong campaign from gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake have helped Masters close most of the gap with Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. What we once described as a “Lean Democratic” race in POLITICO’s Election Forecast is now a “Toss Up,” meaning neither Kelly nor Masters has a significant advantage in the contest.
The Senate race joins the Arizona governor’s race in that category, with Lake running neck-and-neck — or narrowly in front of — Democrat Katie Hobbs in the polls, allaying any Republican fears that the first-time candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump would flame out in the general election.
Just recently, Masters has pulled the race within a dead heat as Kelly can’t seem to close the deal with Arizona voters:
This was a race nowhere on the radar for a possible Republican pickup. Kelly has been a generally quiet and unremarkable Senator though his voting aligns closely with Chuck Schumer on every major liberal cause. He’s been absent for the border crisis and unable to separate himself from Biden’s failed economic policies. Masters has a better-than-even chance of flipping this seat.
Nevada – Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D)*
Nevada is another race where it was believed Adam Laxalt was simply too extreme to win Nevada, a blue-leaning purplish state. Unlike in Arizona, where Masters is just now pulling the race even, Laxalt has been polling ahead of incumbent Democratic Senator Catherin Cortez Masto for weeks.
Independent voters in Nevada, similar to national trends, appear to be breaking for Laxalt:
One of the tightest Senate races in the country has drawn even tighter in the final weeks of the midterm election season, with Republican Adam Laxalt now polling even with Democratic Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada — a race that is one of the GOP’s best shots at flipping a Democratic-held seat.
Laxalt has inched ahead of Cortez Masto by 2 percentage points, within the poll’s margin of error, a gain from a month ago when he was down 3 percentage points, according to a poll conducted this week by the conservative Club for Growth and shared exclusively with POLITICO.
The bump for Laxalt represents a swing toward Republicans as concerns about the economy loom large in contrast with a Democratic summer boost in momentum over abortion rights. Independent voters appear to be breaking with the GOP as the Nov. 8 election nears.
This race is also labeled as a toss up but Laxalt has posted some generally better numbers in Nevada than Masters has in Arizona:
Again, this is a race that few were predicting would be a possible pickup for the GOP and a loss of a sitting Democratic incumbent in a fairly blueish state.
Pennsylvania – Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D)
Dr. Oz was written off in this race months ago. He’s been down by often double-digits according to most polls as Republicans typically start at a disadvantage statewide in Pennsylvania. As the race wore on and more voters began tuning in, the tide slowly started shifting. It wasn’t a dam break so much as a slow trickle that has now built up into a wave of concern over Democratic nominee John Fetterman’s health and fitness to serve. The debate on Tuesday night where Fetterman was unable to articulate himself may have been what Oz needed to push him into serious contention:
After getting their first long look at John Fetterman in Tuesday night’s Pennsylvania Senate debate, fellow Democrats are second-guessing his decision to appear on stage five months after a stroke — and some question whether he should have remained on the ballot at all.
“He should not have debated. Anyone on his team who agreed to a debate should be fired, or never work again, because that debate may have tanked his campaign,” said Chris Kofinis, a veteran Democratic campaign strategist. “This race was trending toward victory. Now, it’s anyone’s guess what happens.”
In hindsight, it’s not unreasonable to think that Fetterman should’ve avoided the debate and simply tried to play the “basement campaign” game for just a few more days. As it stands now, there haven’t been any new polls since Tuesday but the recent trend has been in Oz’s direction:
A local TV news snap poll after the debate found over 80% saying Oz was the debate winner. If that sentiment permeates the rest of the state, look for a shift into this weekend and perhaps the first poll of the entire race giving Oz a slight advantage.
Georgia – Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D)*
Georgia is still open for a Republican pickup but Herschel Walker has become a troubled candidate. There has been an almost-daily onslaught against him from ex-girlfriends and former relationships alleging he urged perhaps two women to have abortions. With Walker pushing an exclusively pro-life message on the campaign trail, these allegations have created a new dimension to this campaign that once seemed winnable by Republicans over a fairly weak incumbent. Voters don’t often reward hypocrisy.
Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock is now latching onto the allegations against Walker and started going on offense as polls show an incredibly tight race heading into the home stretch:
For weeks, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock has offered only muted criticism of the reports that his Republican opponent paid for a 2009 abortion for his then-girlfriend. When pressed on the campaign trail, the Democrat would only say it was an example of Herschel Walker’s “disturbing pattern” of behavior.
But with polls tightening less than two weeks before the election, Warnock’s campaign had a much different response to the allegations Wednesday from a second woman who claimed Walker pressured her to have an abortion.
Warnock aide Rachel Petri released a statement that invoked Walker’s pattern of violent behavior, falsehoods and bewildering statements on the campaign trail, as well as exaggerations about his business experience and academic record.
“We know Herschel Walker has a problem with the truth, a problem answering questions and a problem taking responsibility for his actions,” Petri said.
Warnock had been pretty consistently polling ahead of Walker throughout the summer but the race shifted in October when Walker started putting up better numbers. Then, the floodgate of allegations broke open but here’s the most recent slate of polls which still show the race essentially tied:
Republicans do not need to win Georgia to retake the Senate, but the race remains a toss up and still very much in contention for Walker. With incumbent Republican Brian Kemp on the top line for Governor leading his Democratic opponent by several points, it may be enough to carry Walker over the line. On the other hand, it’s plausible to see voters split their vote or some Republicans simply withhold a vote in the Senate race over concerns about Walker’s character.
Conclusion
There are several other key races but these four are the most closely watched and the most likely pickup opportunities for Republicans hoping to flip the Senate. If basically one or more of these seats change hands and Republicans hold their current incumbency in places like Wisconsin and North Carolina, that alone would be enough to give the GOP a 51-49 majority. If more than one or all of them end up flipping, the GOP could be in charge holding a 54-46 majority.
Democrats are now on defense in places they thought were safe. The freak-out has formally begun.
