I have tried to avoid spending too much attention on the “will she/won’t she” articles since the bottom line is that there is no reason for Hillary Clinton to announce her candidacy anytime before next year. However, there are some data points worth noting which demonstrate the “inevitability” of Hillary Clinton isn’t what it once was.

Report from FiveThirtyEight:

We’re still a long way from the 2016 election, but Clinton needs to decide soon whether to run. The political landscape right now is more Republican-leaning than at a comparable point in the 2012 cycle (when President Obama, with a 46 percent approval rating, led a generic Republican 42 percent to 39 percent). Obama’s approval has dropped to 42 percent.

In four polls conducted over the past month, YouGov asked more than 2,500 registered voters whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for president in 2016. The Republican candidate led, on average, 39.2 percent to 36.7 percent. Again, these results are among registered, not likely, voters, so this lead has nothing to do with turnout.

The current environment suggests Clinton would need to be stronger than a generic Democratic candidate to be considered the favorite. Instead, her standing has deteriorated. YouGov has been polling Clinton’s favorable ratings among adults over the past six years (adults overall tend to be more Democratic leaning than just registered voters).

Also mentioned is the fact that Hillary Clinton handily led most every poll against potential GOP challengers in 2016. Now, however, many polls show her tied or trailing in some cases.

Clinton’s edge against Republicans in a potential 2016 matchup has also taken a hit. She once led by double-digits in matchups against most Republicans. But recent live telephone polls in the key swing states of Iowa and New Hampshire have Clinton neck and neck with 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Nationally, Quinnipiac found Romney leading Clinton 45 percent to 44 percent among registered voters. At a comparable point in the 2012 cycle, Romney was down 7 percentage points to Obama. Clinton led New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie by 1 percentage point, and she holds leads of 4 to 9 percentage points on the other Republican candidates.

Even with all that said, she’s still the front runner on the Democratic side whether she announces tomorrow or four months from now.

7 COMMENTS

  1. Hillary will run, since it is her last chance to do so before turning into a prune by 2020.

    What is incomprehensible is that she has not declared her run yet — while she still looks almost human and is still ambulatory.
    A year from now she’ll look like a bag-lady, decrepit, incoherent (like on her book tour) and with the physiognomy of an old hag — thus, repulsive to male voters.

    Let’s hope Hillary declares her presidential run today — so MSM has a field day concentrating on her for a long time, thus ignoring most other Dem potentials.

    Another benefit to the American People for a Hillary run now — lot’s of time to expose her criminal, dirty laundry (from Whitewater to Benghazi) giving a chance to find enough evidence to put her in jail for life (where she belongs)!

    Run Hitlery, run!

    • Hey ,hey,……lets watch that ol’e and decrepit talk ! There’s only a month separating Mrs. Clinton and me in age.

    • Nobody announces this early. As it is, she’s the only Democrat taking fire. She’d take a lot more if she announced. Also, the media are looking for the “official announcement.” Once she announces, she’ll have no news value.

        • Yeah, well, Burger King just “announced” that it is bringing back the Yumbo Sandwich, but that doesn’t mean they’re running for president.

          These days, there are about 20 steps before they become official candidates. In the vernacular, to “announce” is to admit that they are, in fact, actually RUNNING for president, not doing exploratories, not setting up committees, not doing polls, not consulting family members. . .to “announce” is to make it official, and nobody “announces’ this early.

    • Surfisher, Hillery’s problem is not her appearance, but her voice and hostility to men.

      Just the sound of her voice saying anything, makes me cringe, and her hositity and rage, which is supposed to be inspiring, just makes me want to flee.

      Obama has proven that familarity breeds contempt, since he is compelled to insert himself in EVERY SINGLE news cycle, and Hillary seems to have the same impulse.

      Campaigns force a person to be in the news cycle most of the time, and Hillary will be IN OUR FACE, once she announces her run, so the unlikeability factor will be key.

      I like Jim Webb, and can listen to him speak, even if I disagree on many issues, and even Elizabeth Warren does not grate on me, because she is attractive, and her voice is pleasant, lefty or not.

      Hillary also has the problem in that she has to air ALL her dirty laundry now, so she can call it old news in the campaign, but neither Jim Webb or Elizabeth has any dirty laundry to address, so they have the luxury of running without having to clear the air over Benghazi, Huma Abedin, Bill’s involvement with Ms. “Energizer Bunny”, or so forth.

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