Granted it is still early in the Summer, however, we’re over the July 4th hump so it’s onward toward August when more and more Americans actually begin paying attention to this process. Examining the Electoral College map over the past couple months has given some optimism to President Obama since it showed he was still well ahead in terms of the states he needs to win. In the last 30 days, however, there has been a shift in these estimates with Mitt Romney now leading in several important swing states.

Report from the Examiner:

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee running against President Obama in November, continues to lead in a sufficient number of states to win the election. At this time, Romney would get at least 298 electoral votes if the election were held today. Six states, which are Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon are too close to call. In these states one candidate might lead by less than the margin of error in the reliable polls, but neither candidate has a majority.

A look at the map, at the left, shows it is looking more red and this trend is gradually moving in that direction as we get close to election day in November. I expect the continued unpopular nature of Obamacare, given it being upheld by the high court, will further energize conservative and tea party movement support for Mitt Romney. Those pink states will become more red and don’t be surprised to see the swing states go red.

The most solid states going for President Obama right now are Vermont, New York, Delaware, Maryland, his home state of Illinois, Hawaii, and California. These states total must over 100 electoral votes, or a similar number to those states won by Michael Dukakis when he ran against George H. W. Bush in 1988. That is clearly what the trend is starting to show, that this election could look a lot more like 1988 than the 2000 or 2004 scenario that many pundits are predicting.

Check the article for the state-by-state breakdown of how things shake out. The most interesting polling will begin coming in August once we get closer to the conventions and the news cycle becomes more dominated with Presidential politics.

Note: The first version of this post referred to an earlier Examiner.com article. The article reference has been changed and the post updated to reflect the correctly referenced article.

11 COMMENTS

  1. This report talks about “momentum,” yet it’s based on an article that is almost a month old, and that article is based on polls that were taken before that. Here’s another news flash: “Dewey Beats Truman!!”

  2. It should be noted that “Examiner.com” is the Arlington Virginia Conservative Examiner, and the map the guy shows is total fantasy. Hardly a reliable source. Next month, the guy will be showing Massachusetts going for Romney. . .

    • Hey Billy-boy, don’t you mean “fold like a cheap tent”? Regardless, let’s look at your claim that Romney will fold in the debates. Let’s see, he went through, what, 20 debates in the Republican primary, and won the primary. He went through numerous debates in 2008. Yeah, his lack of experience is glaring. Basically your claim is what you want to happen, not what is likely to happen in reality. Your distance from reality means you’re a good liberal. Congratulations!

      BTW, Obama has the toughest job ahead in the debates – he has to defend his awful record! It will be easy pickings for Romney.

      • Chili:

        You could call Billy a lot of things, but liberal ain’t one of them.

        My own read is that the debates could be as powerful as the first Nixon-Kennedy debate in 1960. People who were amazed that a black man could string words together to make a sentence in 2008 proclaimed him a great speaker. He ain’t. As the current flap shows, he had an excellent point to make that no man is an island, but ended up sounding like no man is capable.

        On the other hand, Willard can’t keep his feet, hands, and hairwax out of his mouth whenever he goes off-script. If he doesn’t stick to his script, he quickly shows that he’s an out-of-touch one-percenter. But you’re right, he really doesn’t have an excuse, since he’s gone through a lot of debates this year.

        With two loose canons up there, anything could happen, especially since it sounds like they’re going to give ’em plenty of rope to hang themselves. EXCEPT that, like during the debates, Willard said he feels no compunction to answer a question from a lowly peon moderator, and he will have plenty of canned speeches to pull out. That’s the risk with long-format “answers.”

        I wouldn’t put any money on either of these guys, since they are both quite capable of destroying themselves in front of our eyes. Have popcorn ready.

  3. Are these same people the ones who betted on the sure bet of other’s 401K’s and loss mega billions of American money? How dare they attempt to use predictions of the past to predict the future. No one knows what to expect for tomorrow, we are facing a new frontier and need a leader who is able to meet the challenges of the future and not rely on the past. The past is only the past, yeah, we can learn a lot from the past; that is, to not depend on it for the future. Statistics are good but there is no sure thing anymore. This is why businesses are sitting on their money waiting for a sure thing. Sorry wealthy hogs, you will either have to spend your money or it will just evaporate in tax hikes for being stingy. I know, why don’t we elect a robot and a crystle ball, we might not need Romney and his reliance on a sure $10,000 bet.

  4. Nebraska GOP Mafia has vowed that on the 14th of July they’ll do WHATEVER it takes to have Ron Paul Supporters SILENCED! See the strong-arm tactics these creatures have already set in motion to cheat Ron Paul of Delegates :

    http://nebraska.watchdog.org/23602/exclusive-security-doubled-at-gop-convention-in-anticipation-of-ron-paul-insurgency/

    Contact Lawyers4RP, Ron Paul’s Campaign — and ALL that are needed to go to Nebraska and assure that NO CHEATING against Real Americans is done, again!

    Spread this like wildfire!

  5. Have you lost your minds?
    Where did you learn math? Obama is leading in all polls in the electoral college. MORONS!

    • Rick:

      It’s way too early to count chickens. You may have noticed that several states have moved from blue to purple. My Michigan is one. I didn’t like his dad–he was the FIRST auto leader to move jobs out of Michigan. And Willard rooted for the state to fail. Yet, he seems to be doing surprisingly well here.

      People think presidents are automatically re-elected, but it just ain’t so. Since 1888, Poppy Bush lost. Jimmy lost. Ford lost. LBJ would have lost. Truman figured he’s lose, so he declined. Hoover lost. Taft lost. Harrison lost. Cleveland lost.

      Meanwhile, W, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, Ike, Roosevelt, Wilson, McKinley won second terms.

      So nine presidents lost or would have lost, and only eight presidents won re-election.

      The main reason Obama might win is that it looks like Willard will be his opponent. The GOP’s only hope is that Obama’s attacks will be so successful now that they will pick someone besides Rmoney in August. Think Tom Eagleton in 1972. It can happen.

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