Upheaval in the polls has been a mainstay for quite some time now in the GOP field. Lately, businessman Herman Cain had stepped into the mantle of “front runner” in a few national polls, however, a CNN poll released today shows Mitt Romney still holds at least a slight lead or tie in every early state.
Report from CNN:
(CNN) – Mitt Romney is on the top or tied for the lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination in new surveys in the first four states to vote in next year’s primary and caucus calendar.
According to CNN/Time/ORC International polls released Wednesday, the former Massachusetts governor continues to be the overwhelming front-runner in New Hampshire, holds a lead over the other GOP presidential candidates in Florida, and is basically tied for the top spot with businessman Herman Cain in Iowa and South Carolina.
Here is the breakdown state by state:
Iowa: Romney 24%, Cain 21%, Paul 12%, Gingrich and Perry 10%, Bachmann 6%, Santorum 2%, Huntsman 1%
New Hampshire: Romney 40%, Cain 13%, Paul 12%, Huntsman 6%, Gingrich 5%, Perry 4%, Bachmann 2%, Santorum 1%
South Carolina: Romney 25%, Cain 23%, Paul 12%, Perry 11%, Gingrich 8%, Bachmann 4%, Huntsman and Santorum 1%
Florida: Romney 30%, Cain 18%, Gingrich and Perry 9%, Paul 6%, Bachmann 4%, Huntsman and Santorum at 1%
Very notable in each state is the position of Perry, Romney and Paul.
On the national level, a recent Fox News poll shows Cain leading by a few points over Romney:
A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows support for Cain has quadrupled among GOP primary voters since late August. At that time, he stood at 6 percent. After three September debates, he jumped to 17 percent. And now Cain leads the pack at 24 percent.
While it’s the first time Romney has trailed Cain, it’s the second time he’s been ousted from the lead since July. Romney receives 20 percent — a new low for him but still within the margin of error of 5.5 percent among Republican primary voters. Romney was at 23 percent last month and a high of 26 percent in early August.
In the grand scheme of things, the state level polls give us a better indication of what is going on in the ground game. It is interesting that Romney continues holding on, especially being only a few points behind in Iowa where he essentially has conceded that he isn’t trying to win the Hawkeye State caucuses.