In the latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) data release today, it appears Donald Trump has fallen from 1st place just a month ago back to 5th place. Not all that surprising given his flash in the pan popularity among some GOP primary voters. Once his record was examined more deeply, it seems many Republicans have taken a second look and decided to pass.

Report from PPP:

Donald Trump has had one of the quickest rises and falls in the history of Presidential politics. Last month we found him leading the Republican field with 26%. In the space of just four weeks he’s dropped all the way down to 8%, putting him in a tie for fifth place with Ron Paul.

Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are at the top of the GOP race with 19% and 18% respectively. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin are further back at 13% and 12%, followed by Trump and Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

As Trump got more and more exposure over the last month Republicans didn’t just decide they weren’t interested in having him as their nominee- they also decided they flat don’t like him. Only 34% of GOP voters now have a favorable opinion of Trump to 53% who view him in a negative light.

Trump really made hay out of the ‘birther’ issue and as the resonance of that has declined, so has his standing. In February we found that 51% of Republican primary voters thought Barack Obama was not born in the United States. Now with the release of his birth certificate only 34% of GOP partisans fall into that camp, and Trump’s only in fifth place with that now smaller group of the electorate at 9%.

I don’t think The Donald can do much to recover at this point. He can’t erase his spotty record on changing positions and he can’t take back what he’s already said in the past few weeks. Trump garnered the press for his outspoken, direct attacks on President Obama. If another GOP candidate can do the same, albeit in a similar but distinctive manner, it is clear to see how a front-runner could emerge.

The question remains, which candidate has the spine and charisma to be Donald Trump without the baggage? Some on the right believe that man could be Herman Cain. He has the business experience but none of the baggage and showmanship surrounding Trump.

It remains to be seen in the coming months but the race is fluid and open for anyone to step forward.


  1. Who da …. is herman cain?
    Okay, so maybe Repubes need a fresh face, but to beat an incumbent … He has to do something spectacular, like … stop the Insanity Defense by Repubes:
    topics to avoid:
    – death panels
    – birther issues
    – cut spending on Seniors

    Most likely he will go on the usual right wing lies about how poor blacks are destroying the country, aka the Welfare Queen model, lie, lie, lie about how we can cut taxes and retain or increase spending at the same time.

    A recipe to win would be to cut spending on the War(s). it would be surprising and it would attract Independents in droves.
    As would any non-personal, vile, truthful campaign by a repube
    Fair warning: Obama is actually behaving like a fiscal-conservative and a social-leftwinger.
    So there’s little room for manoeuvrings

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