The biggest question of Election Night is no longer which party is having the better night. It is how large the Democratic gains will be when the counting is finished.
Decision Desk HQ has projected Democrats to win control of the U.S. House, while its live Senate model is projecting a 53-47 Democratic chamber. Several of the Republican-held seats that will determine the final margin are still uncalled, but the late-night map is breaking heavily toward Democrats.
North Carolina has already flipped Democratic, while Georgia and New Hampshire have stayed in Democratic hands. At the same time, Republicans are under pressure in Texas, Ohio, South Carolina, Kansas and Maine, with Democrats also running strongly in Michigan.
The House Has Gone Democratic
Decision Desk HQ has now projected Democrats to win control of the House, removing one of the major remaining questions of the night. The final size of the Democratic majority will take longer to settle as western states continue counting, but control of the chamber is no longer in doubt in DDHQ’s projection.
That leaves the Senate as the main unresolved fight, although even there the direction is increasingly clear. DDHQ’s live Pulse currently projects Democrats to finish with 53 seats, enough for a majority with room to spare.
Texas Is Driving the Senate Story
Texas has become one of the clearest examples of how far the map has moved.
Democrat James Talarico has built a large lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race, with millions of votes counted and DDHQ’s live model moving strongly toward Talarico. The state was supposed to be one of the pillars of the Republican Senate map; instead, it is now one of the biggest potential Democratic pickups of the night.
Follow the live Texas Senate results at Decision Desk HQ.
The governor’s race is also running sharply toward Democrats in the current count, with Gina Hinojosa leading Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. That race remains uncalled, but the combination of the Senate and governor results has made Texas one of the most striking states on the board.
Follow the live Texas governor results here.
South Carolina and Ohio Put the GOP in a Bind
South Carolina has become one of the most damaging results for Republicans because it was not supposed to be a state they needed to rescue late on Election Night.
Democrat Annie Andrews is leading Republican Darline Graham with most of the expected vote counted, keeping another traditionally Republican seat in play. If Andrews holds on, Republicans will have lost one of the states they were relying on as part of their basic Senate floor.
Follow the live South Carolina Senate results at DDHQ.
Ohio is creating the same kind of problem. Sherrod Brown is leading Republican Jon Husted, and DDHQ’s live Pulse has Brown ahead in its win probability model. Ohio had been one of the states Republicans hoped could offset trouble elsewhere; instead, it is another seat moving toward Democrats.
Follow the live Ohio Senate results at DDHQ.
Kansas, Maine and Michigan Could Expand the Margin
Once Texas, Ohio and South Carolina are added to the already-flipped North Carolina seat, Democrats have a path to the majority without needing every other close race on the map.
That is why Kansas and Maine have become less about whether Democrats can reach 51 seats and more about how large the eventual majority could become.
Democrat Adam Hamilton is running strongly in Kansas against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, while DDHQ’s live model has also leaned toward Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine. Michigan, meanwhile, is moving toward a Democratic hold, denying Republicans another potential pickup they needed to balance losses elsewhere.
Follow the live Maine Senate results at DDHQ.
The same is true elsewhere on the map. Iowa and Alaska remain competitive, giving Democrats additional opportunities beyond the states currently doing the most damage to the Republican path.
The Remaining Question Is the Size of the Senate Majority
The Senate math has changed considerably over the course of the night.
North Carolina is already in the Democratic column. If Texas, Ohio and South Carolina finish where they are currently trending, Democrats would have enough pickups to reach a majority while preserving their existing seats. Maine, Kansas, Iowa or Alaska could then add to that total rather than determine control.
That is why DDHQ’s live model is now projecting a 53-47 Democratic Senate. The individual races are still being counted, but Democrats have several routes to the majority while Republicans have increasingly few places left to make up losses.
Prediction markets have moved in the same direction, with both Kalshi and Polymarket pricing Democratic Senate control above the Republican alternative and favoring Democrats across many of the major remaining battlegrounds.
A Different Congress Is Taking Shape
The House has now been projected for Democrats by Decision Desk HQ. The Senate has not yet received the same formal control call, but DDHQ’s live model is projecting a Democratic majority and the key races are moving in that direction.
At this point, the uncertainty is increasingly about margin rather than direction.
Texas could flip. Ohio could flip. South Carolina could flip. Kansas and Maine remain additional possibilities, while North Carolina is already gone for Republicans and Democrats have protected key seats in Georgia and New Hampshire.
For anyone heading to bed Tuesday night, that is where the election stands: Democrats have taken the House in DDHQ’s projection and are positioned for a Senate majority as well. The remaining count will determine whether that majority is narrow or whether the night’s Democratic wave produces something larger.
Follow live national results, network streams and race-by-race coverage on our 2026 Midterm Election Night live coverage page.