Update: Trump wins by 30-points
The Iowa caucuses take place today, for Republicans, at least, which means the first votes of the 2024 primary cycle will be on the books sometime late this evening. Iowa Democrats are holding a caucus today as well, but it will be mail-only and the results will be announced on Super Tuesday on March 5. Only results from the Republican caucuses will be released later tonight.
The weather is expected to be a big factor as sub-freezing temperatures may affect voter participation in some instances.
What time do the caucuses start?
Cuaucus at each location doesn’t officially begin until 7 pm CT, 8 pm ET. Participating voters will arrive before then to check in and collect their paperwork.
GOP Caucus Info: IowaGOP.org
Dem Caucus Info: IowaDemocrats.org
When will the results be available?
Results will not be expected until well after the 8 pm CT, 9 pm ET hour, perhaps even later depending on how the counting and organizing goes.
Here’s a live stream courtesy of RSBN/YouTube which will feature live results tonight starting at 7 pm ET:
What do the final Iowa caucus polls say?
Well, they say the “final” poll happens in the voting booth, or perhaps at the caucus location, but here’s the latest run down on each pollster’s last shot at predicting the outcome. Historically speaking, no Republican has won the caucuses by a margin larger than 12 points. If Trump manages to break this norm, it may produce a domino effect down the line of inevitability.
According to the Des Moines Register poll, Trump heads into caucus day as the dominant candidate leading by double-digits:
Trump winning by nearly 30 points would be historical in many ways but also serve as a nail in the coffin for DeSantis and likely Nikki Haley as well. It’s also worth noting this is the highest margin lead ever for a final DMR poll heading into the caucuses.
The Emerson College poll is even more generous to Trump:
? Final Iowa GOP Caucus Poll
Trump: 55% (+5)
[Change vs December 15]
Haley: 21% (+4)
DeSantis: 15% (=)
Ramaswamy: 5% (-3)
Hutchinson: 2% (+2)Emerson (A-) | 562 LV | 1/11-13 | ±4.2%https://t.co/JzDxzX12hu pic.twitter.com/VUmepY59Wc
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 14, 2024
There are only really two scenarios for a possible outcome tonight. Either Trump wins but a little or wins by a lot. Unless the polling is embarrassingly wrong (it’s happened before), Trump should win tonight.
It’s difficult to see how DeSantis somehow battles back from these numbers. If he’s truly only garnering mid-double-digit support days before, where is the sudden groundswell of support coming from on caucus night?
Haley has seen improvement and will probably beat DeSantis tonight, but her numbers will also remain low. On the other hand, DeSantis could still wind up in second place given the extent of his ground game and organization.
We’ll know tonight whether Trump is vulnerable to an upset in New Hampshire or whether his domination of the 2024 GOP primary will continue.
