Our first two numbers are four U.S. Hospitals with significant isolation units with 23 beds in those facilities. Our third number is that, conservatively, each Ebola victim was in contact with 80 people. Hold those numbers in mind.

Based on the Center for Disease Control’s reporting of the 75 health care workers that cared for the index patient 2 contracted Ebola; that’s a 2.7% infection rate for trained medical professionals in some form of protective gear that does not exist in the population in general.

The downside potential for the outbreak is in the geometric progressions.

We have, or had four cases; 4 patients times 80 potential contacts is 360 people; at the 2.7% infection rate that’s another 9 people bringing the current total to 12 living. Those 12 times another 80 contacts is 960, times the infection rate we now have, potentially, 26 new patients plus the prior 12; 38.

At this point we have 15 more patients than we have beds in isolation units. In just three iterations of the geometric progressions our high end treatment capacity has been exceeded by more than 50%!

The progression continues, 38 patients by 80 contacts each is 3,040, multiplied by the infection rate gives you nearly 100 infected patients based on the above stated assumptions. We are now attempting to track down, control and isolate 8,000 potential exposures. That 8,000 times the infection rate and we’re at 216 potential infections, times the contact assumption and the number is 17,280 possible infections. By this time one could make the assumption that the infection rate increases due to stress on the system and a lack of facilities. If at this point the infection rate goes to 5%, we have the potential for 864 cases and 69,120 people to keep track of. Those 69,100 times the new infection rate and we have 3,456 Ebola infected patients with 276,480 contacts.

In West Africa Ebola infections are expected to double every three weeks. 40% of all cases reported in West Africa, were reported in the last 21 days. The World Health Organization opines that new cases in West Africa could reach 10,000 per week. That represents the recognition that the geometric progression is, in fact, what is occurring in West Africa.

Add to our numbers the 150 West Africans arriving daily in the U.S. and a parallel pattern of geometric progressions reveals itself.

Cross-posted from You Decide Politics

37 COMMENTS

  1. Crap. It dumped my post when it asked for ID again. Argh.

    I was saying that Ebola shows an error in our medical system. Drug companies don’t care about lethal diseases if they don’t think they can get rich off them.

    We should have a triage system that analyzes how lethal a new disease is, and how lethal it could become–and get started on research before lethal diseases spread.

      • Not “every,” but it’s just a fact that the drug companies want a lot of people to die before they think they can make the kind of money they want.

        Most diseases are either not this deadly, or not this easily spread. But when we see a disease that could become a major deadly epidemic, yes, I think governments should fund research. Then let drug companies bid for the license to produce the stuff. Then use that stiff licensing fee to fund new research.

  2. Ebola — why won’t Obama’s Gov stop the flights from Africa and refuse US entry to anyone with African passport? This is what quarantine is all about — the medical response to a potential outbreak!

    A cynic would say that Obama is more concerned with his African brothers’ freedom of movement, than the American people’s well-being! An epidemic in USA would help him and Dems — by shifting the focus from his illigal and illegitamate actions he makes on a daily basis, that constitute just cause for his Impeachment!

    • Africa is a whole continent. Why not stop flights from the eastern hemisphere?

      There has been talk of stopping flights from infected countries, but they say it’s better to KNOW that people are coming from infected countries, so we can watch them.

      The flaw in that, while it’s true that people are not contagious if not showing symptoms, it takes 21 days for symptoms to develop. So, theoretically, someone could look just fine, and a few weeks later, when they have disappeared into the population, they start spreading it.

  3. The United States has four specially equipped biocontainment hospital facilities located in Nebraska, Montana, Maryland and Georgia. Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, is currently treating NBC News cameraman Ashoka Mukpo, who contracted Ebola while filming in Liberia. The Bethesda facility is treating Dallas nurse, Nina Pham. Amber Vinson, another Dallas nurse, is being treated Emory University Hospital in Atlanta. All patients are in stable condition. Dr Brantley and another nurse are now free and clear of the Ebola virus.

    That Texas Presbyterian failed in several aspects of handling the first Ebola victim is tragic but the blame game shouldn’t just point at them. The United States has been without a Surgeon General for over a year. His primary responsibility is the health of the American population. It is not the fault of John Boehner, nor the fault of Harry Reid, not even Mitch McConnell. This lies at the feet of Senator Rand Paul. He used a procedural move called a “hold” to prevent a vote on confirming Dr Murthy’s nomination as Surgeon General in 2013. However, Congress cannot deny having cut billions-of-dollars from the CDC and NIH for research into infectious disease preparedness at all levels of government. The cuts go back ten years,
    with particular funding shortfalls as a result of the sequester.

    • It appears President Obama asked for a CDC budget of $6.6 billion. Congress gave the CDC $6.9 billion.

      Obama’s signature is on each spending bill that has set the budgets for both agencies; in other words, he went along. And Democrats mostly voted for them. Moreover, sequestration – with its blunt budget ax – was an idea that originated in the Obama White House.

      In divided government, all sides – the Obama administration, Democratic-held Senate, and GOP-controlled House – share responsibility for the recent budgets of the key agencies responsible for battling Ebola. All three sides have collaborated to produce those final budgets since 2011.

      This is a good article that sorts it out and lays blame on the budget cuts all the way around:

      http://www.wjla.com/articles/2014/10/in-political-fight-over-cdc-and-nih-budgets-which-party-is-telling-the-truth–108180.html

      • That is what I consider a very intelligent, very snarky reply. I did not place budget preparation blame on any political party or president, past or present. I used the word “Congress” which includes all the rascals. But you did give me cause to research Congressional budget records. And it did confirm the truth of NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins “NIH has been working on Ebola vaccines since 2001. Frankly, if we had not gone through our 10-year slide in research
        support, we probably would have had a vaccine in time for this that
        would’ve gone through clinical trials and would have been ready.”

        If I vexed you about Senator Rand Paul, he is not alone in using the procedural move to halt a nomination. It has been used 96 times since 2008, majority of the time the User keeps their name secret. (they do have a choice).

        I register as Independent which gives me the liberty to vote as I see fit.

        • I register as Independent which gives me the liberty to vote as I see fit.

          Congratulations! You are above the fray. What does that have to do with the price of eggs in China? I’m registered to VOTE. Period. Virginia doesn’t have enrolled party registration so I don’t even have to be labeled at all! I guess that means I can vote as I see fit but I don’t get the benefit of flaunting my “independent” credentials.

          Sorry, your reply to my reply was intelligent yet snarky.

          • Well, Nate, let me be the first to say, that I am not versed on the price of eggs in China. I do not think that being an Independent puts me in any position, above or below, the fray. Since we give politicians an enormous amount of control over our lives, I do prefer to give my vote to the person I feel most qualified, whether that person be Republican, Democrat, Liberterian, or others. With electronic voting, one’s political choice is recorded in a poll log book. This digital list verifies the voter’s name, address, birth date and political party. In Iowa, voters are handed the correct ballot based on their precincts and party affiliation. In Virginia, Larry Haake, registrar for Chesterfield County, which includes part of Richmond, said “poll books cut down waiting times in the county’s 73 precincts. Voters are quickly in and out”.

            With electronic voting machines, no need to flaunt your party credentials, they were there before you walked in.

            • So what are you saying? That even in a place such as Virginia, which has no such thing as party registration, I am being assigned some party registration somewhere in the bowels of the Board of Elections based on my voting record? If so, I think that’s an entirely incorrect assertion.

              When I check in to vote, my identity is verified to make sure I’m legit, and at the right polling location, etc.. and recorded that I showed up to vote. Period.

              Then I can choose paper or electronic ballot. Neither one, paper or electronic, is connected to my specific record in the check-in process. The “poll book” is an electronic form of a voter registration list. When I first moved to Virginia (just before 2008 election), it was all paper check-in which was very slow as poll workers poured over sheets of paper in tiny print looking for my name to write down a number to count me as a voter. Since then, they’ve thankfully moved to an electronic check-in process where the poll workers sit in front of laptops and find my name in seconds yet they record the same information. That I voted and which number I am in the count of total voters that day.

              It has nothing to do with any information about who you vote for or party preference, those things are entirely separate here. We’re an open primary state because of that meaning I could walk in and vote in any official primary. Thus why we still have state conventions to pick nominees in many cases.

              I’m not sure what you’re implying..

            • To paragraph 1…the answer to the question is yes
              To paragraph 2…you just need to add as you vote the electronic poll log will also record your party affiliation

              To paragraph 3…if you can still chose a paper ballot that might be the thing to do. But in today’s world it is safe to say that ballot will be transferred to a computer record. It is not the poll workers in front of laptops that record the information I spoke of. It is the electronic voting machine that remotely records our votes and party affiliation.
              To paragraph 4 I never questioned that Virginia has open primaries. I did not say you have to register your choice of party. I didnot say you couldn’t walk in and vote in any official primary. I have no doubt that Virginia has state conventions.

              What I did say is: With electronic voting, one’s political choice is recorded in a poll log book. This digital list verifies the voter’s name, address, birth
              date and political party.

              This is the digital age and it is stripping us of our privacy.

            • With electronic voting, one’s political choice is recorded in a poll log book.

              That’s simply not correct in a state such as Virginia where this is no such thing as party registration or preference. It does not exist, either legally or secretly. It just is not correct and nothing you’ve said or shared has given me reason to think otherwise.

              I understand what you’re saying, but it doesn’t apply in every situation.

              Iowa has party registration which means that your registered party affiliation is, naturally, a part of your voter registration entry. Just like New York and other states that required you to register as a member of a party or independent.

              You’re comparing states like Iowa which require party affiliation to states like Virginia which do not.

              It may be splitting hairs at this point, but I think you’re wrong about this since it depends on various state laws.

    • Tess — another liberal spin (scam on truth) you post again!

      You are to be congratulated on spinning the liberal crap Wheel of Misfortune, and have it land where you wanted it to do in the first place — blaming Rand Paul (the one threat to your liberal anti-American candidates in 2016) as the single person responsible for Ebola outbreak in USA. Because Rand Paul refused to knuckle down and have another liberal apparatchik appointed by Obama, Dr. Murthy (who is foreign born, like Obama) you postulate that had this foreign-born Doctor become Surgeon General…he would have magically cured Ebola in USA…. Laughable attempt at misdirection, and just plain idiocy, on your part, as usual.

      When the truth is that the real culprits to lay charges against a possible Ebola Epidemic are Mr. Obama & Democrooks Inc. — instead of stopping the flights from Africa and refusing entry to USA to ALL Africans, they have chosen to ignore the well-being of the American people, so Obama’s African ‘brothers’ are not politically “slighted”! What A TRAVESTY — for the sake of Political “Correctness” a nationwaide Epidemic may be on the way!

      Another reason to have Obama impeached after the 2014 elections (when the Dems lose the Senate)!

  4. I was thinking about this today. Ebola requires contact with human bodily fluids. So health-care workers wear plastic suits, but contaminate themselves when they touch fluids left on the suits when take them off.

    Why don’t they wear some of those rubber suits from a porn shop. Then, when they leave the room, take a shower IN the suit. Then, when they take them off, there’s no bodily fluid left to get on ’em.

    • I have a feeling that your second paragraph was “tongue in cheek”. If your suggestion was put into practice, doctors and nurses would certainly be safer from contacting infectious diseases. Texas Presbyterian says ordinary bleach will kill the germ. Add that to their shower.

      • Seems to me, if even water flushes the surface, it should be safe.

        I was being facetious about the rubber suit, except that they seem to be saying the suits they have in hospitals are awkward and have gaps between sections. A rubber suit would mold to the body and as long as the shirt section overlaps the pant section, and the pant section overlaps the boot section, water would run off, just as it runs off shingles on a roof. From what I’ve heard, it sounds as if the suits they’re using are ill-fitting and have gaps.

    • That’s just a sign of the damage our media does to us. We’ve had only ONE person come in with it–and he was not symptomatic at the time. Now that we’ve been aware of it, we’ve had ZERO.

      And the results? ZERO citizens other than health-care workers. And if you count them, they are TWO out of 316 million. That’s a rate of 0.00000000006 %

      We did have the cameraman pick it up over there, but he’s Ebola-free now, too.

      But if you watch our media, especially Fox, you’d think we’re all dying in the streets, so I’m not surprised that other countries are getting such a bad impression of us.

        • Argh. The system dumped my comment when it asked for my id again. That’s five times now.

          Anyway, yeah, you’re right. Dems are screwed. Even if there are no new cases, we’re too close to the election for people to calm down about it.

          • Goethe — spot on. The Dems have shot themselves in the foot by refusing to STOP the African FLIGHTS!

            This will hopefully translate in the 55 Senate win I predicted — so I’ll own your house (hope it is not in a trailer park….).

          • I interpreted the link as the President being a deadly virus if he campaigned for Democratic candidates simply because of his policies over the past 6 years.

          • Argh. The system dumped my comment when it asked for my id again. That’s five times now.

            It shouldn’t be doing that. They just put out an update which I have installed as of this writing. Might fix that bug.

            • Funny thing is, I have gotten in the habit of pushing “copy”: before I go to ID. But it never does it when I remember to copy what I wrote! Like this time. . . .

            • Goethe — maybe it’s rejecting your posts since you mostly write nonsense…ever think of that… 🙂

            • Well, that’s close to a sense of humor. Maybe you can share it with Bob.

              I just read an article about Ebola. NOW they’re saying Ebola will live on door knobs and other DRY surfaces for HOURS, and some liquids, like blood, can live for days. Plus, they try to say it can’t be passed in the air, but if it can live on a door handle, seems to me, spit particles from a sneeze or cough could get all over the place, and live for at least hours–if not stay in the air and get sucked right up your nose.

              I don’t mean to scare you, though, since someone has to be infected first, and the only people we have had infected have worked directly with patients.

            • Nate;
              I’m NOT HAVING ANY TROUBLE with either posting on or receiving post from the site. Surfisher may be on to something here.

            • It might be a Macintosh issue. I haven’t had the problem lately, but that’s because I block-and-copy before I push the “D” under the box. If you do that, it apparently won’t dump it.

            • “If YOU do that, it apparently won’t dump it.”

              LMAO…..Goethe I don’t have to do anything, I know how to post. You’re the one who is having a problem.

            • Bob, you’re so pathetic sometimes. I was noting that at least one person has had a problem (not lately), and I was noting that IF anyone else begins to have the problem, I was offering a solution for THEM. The issue may have arisen from the fact that I use a Mac, or that I use SBC as my ISP. Or it could be a background operation that is interfering. Not been a problem lately.

              Your problem (among many) is that you’re not interested in solutions. You just want to bitch and point fingers, regardless of topic, Bub.

            • Dude :
              As you can see my response is labeled “Guest”. I originally wrote it with my name SEEING THAT YOU REPLIED YOUR RESPONSE (right above it) TO “BOB”. But I decided it sounded as smartass as some of your post so I attempted to delete it. The site kept the post and just eliminated my name.

              “PROVIDE SOLUTIONS?” Lets not over inflate our purpose here. If we as individuals had any solutions we should be running for office. We are here to exchange ideas, opinions and views which includes “bitching and pointing fingers”. After all you can’t find a solution without pointing out the problem first. NOTHING MORE!

            • Dude:
              You don’t even attempt to listen to people. The issue at hand was a few glitches in the system. I have taken the others directly to Nate, but I wanted to know if anyone else was having this particular technical problem. And if so, I was offering a SOLUTION that seemed to work for me. That’s all that thread was about, and you read a lot into it, so you can bitch and criticize. Give it a rest.

  5. Ebola now in NY!

    Time to impeach Obama and jail his lawless Gov, too!

    By refusing to Stop the African Flights to USA — Obama & Lawless Inc. Gov NEED TO GO NOW!

Comments are closed.