If you listen to the polls, it seems like a certainty that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump, and become President of the United States. But that’s ignoring the fact that the polls have been so wild this year. During the Democratic convention, for instance, Trump was ahead by two points. And look at all the candidates who were considered “winners”—Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina—all looked like they’d get the nomination at some point.


Also, there are more indicators besides polls. FiveThirtyEight adds historical facts and other details to offer a “Polls-Plus” number. And, as we’ve noted, gamblers do their due diligence and put actual money on political races, with odds for each race. And now, we have another indicator. A social media app inventor says comments by real people, with a wide range of demographics, tells him Trump will win—hands down, as reported in USA Today.

“Based on the stats we see, he looks strong,” says Ric Militi, co-founder of San Diego-based Crazy Raccoons, maker of the Zip question and answer app. His app poses questions and polls responses based on an average of 100,000 daily users. “I go with Trump, based on what we see.” . . .

How can Zip’s results be so different?

“We’re not a poll. We’re a conversation, and 100% anonymous,” Militi says. “People feel comfortable answering questions without fear of being bullied or being called a racist. People can express themselves safely, and you get a pure answer.”. . .

Zip, which launched in February, tells consumers the app “resolves debates and sparks conversation,” and suggests that folks use the app to “settle bets, win arguments, find a pick-up line and earn bragging rights.”

Folks can either pose or answer questions and see the instant results from a cross-section of demographics and geography. . . Militi insists his replies are a cross-section of voters in age, gender and geography. “These are the same results we saw when he (Trump) was in the primaries,” he says. He contends that most media polls are just flat-out wrong and that smartphone answers are the future.

Militi says his users are more reliable, because they’re not talking to some mysterious pollster, they’re talking to their peers. Nobody is asking their opinion—they’re giving them.

Elsewhere, we’ve also talked about the British “Shy Tory” factor, in which people are afraid or embarrassed to tell pollsters they’re for Trump, since the elites frown on it.

We saw the opposite of the effect years ago in this country. It’s called the “Bradley effect,” named after African-American mayor of Los Angeles who ran for governor. People thought it was “politically correct” to vote for Tom Bradley, so that’s what they told pollsters. Although ahead in the polls, Bradley lost decisively.

Voting for Donald Trump is decidedly “politically incorrect,” as Trump is proud to say. Or, as Clint Eastwood told Esquire Magazine:

What Trump is onto is he’s just saying what’s on his mind. And sometimes it’s not so good. . .But he’s onto something, because secretly everybody’s getting tired of political correctness, kissing up. That’s the kiss-*ss generation we’re in right now. We’re really in a p*ssy generation. Everybody’s walking on eggshells. We see people accusing people of being racist and all kinds of stuff.

But everybody—the press and everybody’s going, “Oh, well, that’s racist,” and they’re making a big hoodoo out of it. Just f*cking get over it. It’s a sad time in history.

Actually, Trump should be winning, according to the Weekly Standard, because of the issues.

Why. . .is Clinton developing such a lead in the polls? Because she, Trump, and the media all seem to agree upon one thing—that the issues are to be avoided. Clinton and the media avoid the issues because they know she’s hurt by them. Trump avoids the issues for reasons that are harder to ascertain—perhaps because he doesn’t fully realize how much they benefit him or perhaps just because he finds it easier and more enjoyable to talk about something else. But if he were to start talking policy, his electoral fortunes might turn around.

Start with immigration. . . A Gallup poll last year found that 60 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with current immigration levels, with more than five times as many wanting to see those levels decreased (39 percent) as increased (7 percent). . .

Compare those numbers with the two candidates’ stances. Trump talks of building a border wall, taking deportation seriously, and ending President Obama’s lawless executive actions. . . Hillary Clinton, in marked contrast with Trump, has said that she would expand Obama’s executive actions—and she would surely appoint Supreme Court justices who (along with the four Bill Clinton and Obama appointees) would rule that she could. . .

That leads us to Obama’s centerpiece legislation, the second big issue favoring Trump. . . Trump says, “We will repeal and replace disastrous Obamacare,” and he has been briefed on the House GOP alternative and likes it. Clinton says she will “defend and expand the Affordable Care Act.”

Trump talks of trade deals that put America first, making American businesses more internationally competitive by cutting the corporate tax rate to 15 percent (down from 35 percent today), reducing personal taxes, introducing a temporary moratorium on federal regulations, and lifting restrictions on all sources of American energy. . .In marked contrast, Clinton wants to increase taxes, government spending, and regulation. . .

At a time when violent crime has begun to rise again, Trump is focused on restoring law and order, while Clinton is focused on increasing leniency in criminal sentencing. At a time when new terrorist attacks are occurring every few days or weeks, Trump isn’t skittish about saying “Islamic terrorism” and can’t be held responsible for ISIS’s ascendancy, while Clinton is and can.

At a time when we are approaching $20 trillion in national debt—nearly double what the tally was when Obama took office—Clinton is calling for “free” college. At a time when the vast majority of Americans oppose providing taxpayer funding for abortion, Clinton is calling for killing off the Hyde Amendment, the longstanding protection against such practices that for decades enjoyed bipartisan support. (What’s more, then-senator Clinton repeatedly voted against what is now the federal ban on partial-birth abortions.)

Meanwhile, Hillary’s email headaches are continuing. But now, the focus is on indications that she may have used her office as Secretary of State to forward the goals of the private Clinton Foundation. But there’s not much talk about Hillary’s problems because, almost every day, Trump says some “politically incorrect” thing that shocks everyone but his most ardent supporters.

The question is whether he has more ardent supporters than we know about.

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Goethe Behr is a Contributing Editor and Moderator at Election Central. He started out posting during the 2008 election, became more active during 2012, and very active in 2016. He has been a political junkie since the 1950s and enjoys adding a historical perspective.

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