A Breakdown of Polls, Odds, States, and Delegates
As we noted in a previous page, we hear bits and pieces of the campaign in the media, but we don’t have a real sense of where we stand, and where we’re headed. So we’re going to try to pull together where we are in previous forecasts, beginning with the GOP. Note, we are excluding Kasich, since he has no path to victory before the convention.
Before the primaries started, a New York Times writer forecast which states each of the top three candidates would probably have to win to have a path to the nomination. On March 22, neither Trump nor Cruz were projected to win those states. (Note that the state map was drawn when we still had a dozen candidates.) Trump took the big one, Arizona; Cruz took Utah. Wisconsin is up next, April 5. Neither candidate was projected to win it. What that means is, neither candidate needed these states to win.
FiveThirtyEight had a panel of experts theorize how Donald Trump would do in the remainder of the campaign, and what he would need to do to win. On March 22, he needed to win all of Arizona’s delegates, which he did; but he was projected to win four delegates from Utah, which he didn’t. So according to the projections, Trump is four delegates behind his goal. Wisconsin is next, with 42 winner-take-all delegates. Trump and Cruz appear basically tied in this state according to recent polling (see below under Polls heading). He’ll need this victory to get back on track if he is to reach 1,237 delegates before the nomination. Look for Cruz to make a huge effort in Wisconsin to knock Trump off pace.
Trump has won 19 states–New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Arizona. Cruz has won 7 states–Iowa, Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, and Utah.
The current delegate count, according to Google, is 739 for Trump, 465 for Cruz. A total of 1237 is needed to win the nomination.
The most recent poll of Wisconsin shows Cruz with a 1% lead in Wisconsin, but another poll, by another service, just a few weeks before, showed Trump with a 10% lead. Real Clear Politics averages the two, putting Trump ahead by 5%.
As for national polls,Trump is ahead by 12.3%–43.0 to 30.3.
It’s too early to have a number for Wisconsin, but Election Betting Odds currently give Trump the edge in probability to win the nomination—71.7% to 13.3% for Cruz.
We haven’t discussed this before, but it will be increasingly important as we head to the convention. There’s more and more talk of a “brokered,” “contested,” or “open” convention. Currently, Trump has 7,811,245 cast for him in all the primaries, compared to 5,732,220 for Cruz, according to RealClearPolitics. It will be difficult to justify withholding the nomination from someone who has received millions of votes more than the others.
THE ENDORSEMENT RACE
This is also new to our site. FiveThirtyEight has listed the endorsements each candidate has received, and interestingly, it has assigned “points” each endorsement is worth. House members are worth one point, while senators are worth five, and governors are worth ten. By this measure, at this time, Cruz is ahead with 81 points (4 gov, 2 sen, 31 reps), to Trump’s 41 points (3 gov, 1 sen, 6 reps). Cruz lead here is understandable, because while he has been a thorn in the side of the establishment, he’s still part of it. These Washington Insiders are leery of Trump.
ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, we don’t have a map or delegate count to work with, but we do have several of the topics:
Hillary has 18 states–Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona
Bernie has won 11 states–New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, Idaho, and Utah.
The delegate race on the Dem side is more complicated. While Hillary is ahead in won delegates, 1186 to 899, she can add 467 “superdelegates” whom are not elected, compared to only 26 for Bernie. That gives Hillary a lead of 1690 to 946, with 2382 needed to win.
The most recent poll in Wisconsin puts Hillary up by 6 points, but last month, Bernie was 1% up, so RCP gives Hillary the edge by 2.5%.
As for national polls, Hillary is ahead by 9%–51.5 to 42.5.
The probability of Hillary getting the nomination, according to gamblers is currently 91.8%, to Bernie’s 6.6%.
The total primary popular vote also goes to Hillary, 8,907,55 to 6,355,291. The gap is even larger than the above gap between Trump and Cruz. And, of course, it makes it hard for Bernie to claim that “the people” are behind him.
THE ENDORSEMENT RACE
In the point system described in the GOP section above, Hillary has 489 points, to 6 for Bernie.
We will update this rundown after Wisconsin. If you’d like us to add any other criterion, let us know.