The Definitive Super Tuesday 2016 Guide
Super Tuesday is the first day in the primary cycle where the presidential campaign heads nationwide with multiple states voting on the same day. Both Democratic and Republican voters will go to the polls in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. In addition, Alaska Republicans and American Samoa Democrats will caucus that day. There are 595 Republican delegates and 1,004 Democratic delegates up for grabs. All contests on Super Tuesday split up delegates proportionally based on the results of the vote. Winner take all states on the Republican side to not start until March 15th.
Here is a state-by-state breakdown for each state and each party on Tuesday, March 1st, 2016.
Current polling shows that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton enjoy significant advantage in Alabama. For Trump, his push will be helped by Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions coming out with an endorsement on Sunday.
The one and only poll taken this year shows Donald Trump with a 4 point lead over Ted Cruz. This race could be a toss-up given how unpredictable caucuses are. I’d give a slight advantage Trump with his momentum, but anything could happen.
American Samoa Democratic Caucus
Delegates: 10 Democratic
We don’t have much information available for this caucus since the party has no website in American Samoa. No formal polling has been released. I’d give the advantage to Hillary Clinton in this contest purely on name recognition alone.
The latest Republican polling shows a tight three-man race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. Cruz holds a 4 point lead in a recent poll, but it’s within the margin of error so this race could go in any direction. On the Democratic side, Clinton is leading handily in her home state of Arkansas.
The last poll of Colorado Democratic Caucus was taken back in November with a 28 point lead for Clinton. I’d expect her to maintain a similar, but maybe smaller lead at this point.
Colorado Republican Caucus
GOP Caucus Details
Delegates: 37 Republican
There has been no recent polling in Colorado this year. The last poll from November shows Ben Carson as the leader, so we don’t have a good pulse on this race. Furthermore, the delegates are unbound so this doesn’t amount to much more than a beauty contest.
The latest polls show Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with strong leads in the state, this race leans heavily in their favor.
On the GOP side, Trump is winning on average by upwards of 26 points, he should take Massachusetts handily. On the Democratic side, polls show Clinton with a 1.5 point advantage, though recent polls have been trending her direction. This may be a close race but I suspect she’ll win.
There haven’t been many polls in Minnesota, the latest were back in January and gave Marco Rubio a slight lead and Hillary Clinton a 34 point lead. The Republican side could be a tight race, while the Democratic side looks to favor Clinton.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump has started building a small lead, though Ted Cruz remains fairly close. Cruz has some built-in advantage as the Senator from neighboring Texas, however, it appears the race is starting to drift in Trump’s favor. On the Democratic side, Clinton looks to have the advantage but only slightly. The race is close but I think Clinton will take Oklahoma as well.
Trump and Clinton look like the easy favorites in Tennessee. Polls show both candidates with significant margins as of days ago.
According to polling, Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are the favorites in Texas. Most polls have shown Ted Cruz with a significant lead in his home state, he is likely to win though not make it to 50 percent. Texas delegates are proportional unless the winner reaches 50%, then it is a winner take all state. Cruz likely won’t hit 50% meaning he’ll split up delegates with the 2nd and 3rd place winners.
Vermont heavily favors Bernie Sanders since he serves as their sitting Senator, this is an easy win for him. Donald Trump is also holding a sizable lead on the Republican side.
Trump and Clinton are both holding sizable leads in Virginia according to multiple polls. Expect both candidates to come out with a win on Tuesday night.
We’ll have full results tomorrow evening on all these races.