Has Trump-mania peaked?
Even when I’m writing the headline, I know in my gut it’s a dumb question. There are a variety of stats and numbers indicating he’s off his massive high which came following the first Republican debate, but is this current dip anything that will have a lasting impression or a temporary lull in the action?
Report from Politico:
Donald Trump looked tired after a grueling Republican debate. He might not be alone.
After a summer of spectacle and saturation coverage, signs are accumulating that, for the public and the media, the onset of Trump fatigue has begun.
Mentions of Trump on both television and radio have been trending downward for a month from their post-Fox debate high. His share of Twitter conversation relative to other candidates has declined in recent weeks, and his odds in political prediction markets have dipped in the hours since Wednesday night’s debate.
Radio and television conversation about Trump peaked on Aug. 7, the day after the first Republican debate, with close to 11,000 mentions of his name on each medium that day, according to data through Monday provided by media monitoring firm Critical Mention. The last time Trump reached even half as many mentions on either medium was on Aug. 26, the day after he clashed dramatically with Univision anchor Jorge Ramos at a news conference in Iowa.
Early reactions to the debate, in which Carly Fiorina emerged a winner and Trump struggled to break through, also suggest the race may be moving beyond the Trump-show phase.
On a political prediction market run by CNN and Pivit, his odds at the nomination tanked from 20 percent to 12 percent between the debate’s start and its end.
Every time the media declares the age of Trump to be officially “over,” they’re proven wrong time and time again. I think the only way that his numbers sink back to earth are if voters themselves get tired of him or, perhaps, they begin seeking more substantive policy positions than he’s willing to provide.
Don’t forget, Trump will be releasing some kind of tax proposal, probably within the next seven to ten days, which will once again ignite the conversation as other candidates will be asked to respond. As the Politico article points out, Trump is a master of public relations. I’d be willing to bet the Trump team is monitoring all these same numbers and will identify areas to take back the momentum and drive up his publicity in short order.
I think we should revisit this topic in one week and see where the numbers settle.