Will Ohio be the deciding factor in 2012?
With several states which Obama carried in 2008 seeming to slip back into the GOP column, think North Carolina and Indiana, it appears that Ohio will be key for either candidate’s victory. As of now, the RealClearPolitics average of Ohio polls shows President Obama leading by 5.2 points.
However, analysis from ABC News is claiming that Ohio is slipping further into the Obama column in 2012:
On the same day that the Republican presidential candidate will take part in his most intense 10-hour period of campaigning in the Buckeye State in months, a fresh New York Times-CBS News-Quinnipiac poll out this morning found President Obama’s edge there growing.
In Ohio, Obama leads Romney, 53 percent to 43 percent — that’s up from the president’s 50 percent to 44 percent lead in a previous poll on August 23. The findings also track with other public polling available in the state that shows Obama out in front.
The new number, however, do not jibe with the message coming from the Romney campaign. Yesterday the campaign’s political director, Rich Beeson, told reporters: “There’s still 42 days to go. We are by any stretch inside the margin of error in Ohio. And the Obama campaign is going to have some problems there.” And while a lot can change between now and Election Day, the weight of evidence is simply not on Romney’s side.
This morning ABC News moved the state of Ohio and its 18 electoral votes from “Toss Up” territory to “Lean Obama.” This puts the ABC Electoral College estimate at 255 for Obama to 206 for Romney. Without a drastic change in Ohio that means there are only seven battlegrounds left for Romney to capture in his quest for the presidency, including the state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.
All of this polling news is coming before any of the Presidential Debates occur in October but I think, right now at least, Ohio is proving to be a tough sell for Mitt Romney.
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